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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
Have rising corporate profits been key to the surge in inflation?

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | May 18, 2023

In this webinar, we look at the extent to which rising profit margins, so-called “greedflation” explain the pick-up in inflation in the advanced economies over the past couple of years. We also explore whether or not the future path for margins is likely to help central banks return inflation to target swiftly.

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Webinar
EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Have we reached the end of the rate hiking cycle?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | May 15, 2023

In February, when Bank Rate was increased to 4%, the MPC sent a clear message that it felt its job was almost done. But since then activity has been firmer than expected and fiscal policy has been loosened, while data on wages and inflation have surprised on the upside, leading markets to expect that Bank Rate will move close to 5% by year-end. In this webinar we will provide an update on the outlook for monetary policy, looking back on the May MPC meeting and presenting some of our recent work on labour market tightness and the outlook for wage growth.

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
The high-stakes election in Africa’s largest democracy

with Pieter Scribante | Online | February 23, 2023

Nigerians are heading to the polls to vote for a new president, the house of representatives, and the senate on February 25, and for their state-wide representatives and governors on March 11. These elections take place under a spectre of record-high inflation, a deepening currency crisis, dissatisfaction with the political establishment, and heightened insecurity. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and set to be replaced. There are three candidates with a realistic path to victory: Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. In this webinar, we explore three scenarios of the potential outcome of the election and discuss the associated policy implications.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar
Eurozone dodges winter bullet but outlook will remain challenging

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | February 14, 2023

European sentiment is improving quickly, as a warm winter and a remarkable effort in reducing gas consumption has erased the prospects of energy rationing during the winter. The improved prospects for the industrial sector means the euro area economy may avoid a recession, but beyond the outlook for energy, prospects will continue to be dominated by two other factors: the evolution of inflation and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle carried out by the ECB.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Where now for the MPC?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 6, 2023

With inflation having past its peak and growing evidence that the labour market is beginning to loosen, the BoE is getting close to the end of its hiking cycle. In this webinar we react to the February MPC meeting and discuss how it has impacted on our interest rate forecasts.

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Webinar
US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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