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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
The high-stakes election in Africa’s largest democracy

with Pieter Scribante | Online | February 23, 2023

Nigerians are heading to the polls to vote for a new president, the house of representatives, and the senate on February 25, and for their state-wide representatives and governors on March 11. These elections take place under a spectre of record-high inflation, a deepening currency crisis, dissatisfaction with the political establishment, and heightened insecurity. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and set to be replaced. There are three candidates with a realistic path to victory: Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. In this webinar, we explore three scenarios of the potential outcome of the election and discuss the associated policy implications.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar
Eurozone dodges winter bullet but outlook will remain challenging

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | February 14, 2023

European sentiment is improving quickly, as a warm winter and a remarkable effort in reducing gas consumption has erased the prospects of energy rationing during the winter. The improved prospects for the industrial sector means the euro area economy may avoid a recession, but beyond the outlook for energy, prospects will continue to be dominated by two other factors: the evolution of inflation and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle carried out by the ECB.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Where now for the MPC?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 6, 2023

With inflation having past its peak and growing evidence that the labour market is beginning to loosen, the BoE is getting close to the end of its hiking cycle. In this webinar we react to the February MPC meeting and discuss how it has impacted on our interest rate forecasts.

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Webinar
US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Key Global Trends for 2023

with Ben May | Online | December 15, 2022

We expect vast swathes of the advanced economies to fall into recession in 2023 and for global growth to be weaker than the consensus expectation. Beyond this, we think that three broad themes which will dominate next year from an economic and financial market perspective: 1. Supply shocks will ease but won't fade completely. 2. Inflation will fall sharply but a fast central bank pivot is less likely. 3. Recessions will be mild but subsequent recoveries disappointing.

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Webinar
Japan Key themes 2023: BoJ finally out of woods?

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 13, 2022

Will global inflation finally end the long-term deflationary trend in Japan? Would this enable the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to start adjusting its Yield Curve Control policy in 2023? In this webinar we will answer these questions by examining four interrelated themes. Are firms regaining pricing power? Is a price-wage spiral about to start? What is the yen forecast in 2023? Will the new BoJ governor make a difference?

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Webinar
EMs’ year ahead – time to pick up a few gems as the steam roller passes by

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | December 8, 2022

In our annual outlook for global emerging markets, we will highlight those EMs most vulnerable to weak global demand and a strong dollar in 2023. Better news is that tail risks associated with very high import prices will fade; and we will show which economies and markets stand to benefit most from falling inflation, ahead-of-the-curve policies and any resumption in capital inflows. Finally, we will assess implications of global policy impotence to deal with this wave of sovereign distress.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Les économies européenne et mondiale face à l’hiver et aux banques centrales

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani and Pierre Delage | Online | November 22, 2022

L’économie française et européenne font face à la double menace des pressions inflationnistes et de la crise énergétique, avec des perspectives globales négatives aux US et en Chine. Le scénario global d’une croissance prise entre stagflation et resserrement monétaire font crainde une récession dans les pays avancés.

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Webinar
A Globally Tight Supply Chain; what could it mean for your demand and supply?

with Darren Anderson and Caroline Franklin | Online | October 27, 2022

The global trade market has undergone a significant upheaval in the past three years, but in a largely synchronous fashion with what was first a global slowdown in spending and then a rapid uptick in consumer goods and building materials. A third wave appears on the horizon as central banks are consciously seeking to temper demand.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: A difficult winter ahead

with Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper - Scott, Alexandra Hermann and Daniel Kral | Online | October 26, 2022

After a strong first half of the year, the Nordic economies have a difficult winter ahead amid high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and softening activity. In this webinar, we will discuss the macroeconomic outlook for this winter and beyond, as well as our view on Nordic industry and cities performance.

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Webinar
Middle East: Interest rates, exchange rates and oil – economic outlook to remain robust

with Scott Livermore | Online | October 24, 2022

The Middle East has been the fastest growing region globally this year, defying inflation pressures. Quite a few economies, particularly in the GCC, are still doing well and this relative outperformance should continue in 2023. However, the worsening global backdrop (namely recessions in the US and the EU) will increasingly weigh on regional growth momentum even as disinflation takes hold.

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