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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Inflation to fall further as ‘wartime characteristics’ fade

with Adam Slater and Ben May | Online | July 24, 2024

We show how the outburst of inflation in 2021-2023 can be traced in large part to ‘wartime’-style fiscal and monetary policies and pandemic-related distortions to labour and product markets. We also outline how these sources of inflationary pressure are now receding, which points to inflation rates in the G7 continuing to fall to 2% or lower this year and next.

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Webinar
How the forecast may change after election day

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | July 15, 2024

During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in stronger, leading to a more cautious easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. This is the takeaway no matter the president and the political balance of power in Congress. In this webinar we will to take stock of the economy's performance across our six scenarios – two each for Trump, divided government, and the two most recent simulations for Biden.

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Webinar
Will consumer spending drive short-term growth?

with Dmitriy Gruzinov, Scott McEwan and Stephen Adams | Online | July 11, 2024

Earlier in the year, the speed of the disinflationary process peaked and headline inflation has returned to target ranges in most countries, except for Mexico and Colombia. While services inflation remain high, we expect a broad deceleration of core items, partially offsetting upside pressure from a likely rebound in volatile non-core prices. In the next 12 months, we expect most headline inflation to remain broadly within target ranges. However, multiple factors have narrowed the space for policy cuts in the region. Join our expert Economists as we explore these factors and how you can navigate these upcoming scenarios.

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Webinar
How to navigate the latest policy adjustments and disinflation in Latin America

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | July 10, 2024

Earlier in the year, the speed of the disinflationary process peaked and headline inflation has returned to target ranges in most countries, except for Mexico and Colombia. While services inflation remain high, we expect a broad deceleration of core items, partially offsetting upside pressure from a likely rebound in volatile non-core prices. In the next 12 months, we expect most headline inflation to remain broadly within target ranges. However, multiple factors have narrowed the space for policy cuts in the region. Join our expert Economists as we explore these factors and how you can navigate these upcoming scenarios.

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Webinar
Già finito il sogno di un’eurozona a trazione italiana?

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | July 4, 2024

Dopo tre anni di crescita superiore rispetto all’eurozona, e nonostante un avvio di 2024 solido, l’economia italiana sembra destinata a rallentare rispetto ai partner europei, complici un settore manifatturiero che fatica a ripartire e il minor supporto fiscale al settore edile.

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Event
Q2 Virtual Asset Management Roundtable

with Innes McFee, Ryan Sweet, Javier Corominas and Oliver Rakau | In-Person | June 18, 2024

The global economy is in transition. Inflation has fallen from its peaks and the major central banks are approaching the start of the easing cycle, but doubts linger about whether the Fed and the ECB can diverge from their current path and if they do, what the impact on markets will be. At the same time, the pattern of global growth is changing with US exceptionalism returning, while China continues to struggle against mounting structural headwinds. All of these key themes will be discussed in and debated by our global leadership group on our Q2 Macro Outlook Roundtable, happening online on June 18th.

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Webinar
Putting the health of the US consumer under the microscope

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | June 13, 2024

In this webinar we look at the health of the consumer and how the strength of the labor market, rising asset prices, inflation and interest rates impact those across the income distribution. We will explore the reasons behind the rise in consumer delinquency rates and whether rising use of buy-now-pay later services is a warning sign.

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Webinar
GCC: Growth momentum poised to continue despite extended OPEC+ production cuts

with Scott Livermore | Online | June 11, 2024

Ongoing reform efforts have elevated non-energy sectors as the main drivers of GCC economic expansion. Our projections show an improving growth trajectory in H2 and next year, while inflation remains low. We are not too concerned about the drag on activity from oil output cuts, but they weigh on public finances, necessitating greater realism on spending plans, especially in Saudi Arabia.

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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Event
Global Economic Outlook Conference: Frankfurt and Munich

In-Person | April 25, 2024

There now is a broad consensus that in 2024 the world economy will have a soft economic landing and that easing inflation will allow central banks to cut rates soon. Here we explore some of the key themes and risks around the global economic growth and inflation outlook for this year and beyond, along with the broader implications for the Nordic economies.

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Event
Zurich: Global Economic Outlook Conference

In-Person | April 25, 2024

There now is a broad consensus that in 2024 the world economy will have a soft economic landing and that easing inflation will allow central banks to cut rates soon. Here we explore some of the key themes and risks around the global economic growth and inflation outlook for this year and beyond, along with the broader implications for the Nordic economies.

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Webinar
Post-correction real estate opportunities on the horizon?

with Abigail Rosenbaum | Online | April 17, 2024

Solid US GDP growth and lower inflation in 2024 will lead the Fed to begin cutting rates mid-year. Rate cuts should stabilize investor confidence and bring the commercial real estate (CRE) pricing correction to an end this year. Once a recovery is underway in 2025, opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar, using our Relative Return Index (RRI), we highlight risk-adjusted investment opportunities for Global CRE in 2024 and beyond.

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Webinar
What the pandemic has taught us about inflation

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | April 16, 2024

When inflation first rose up in 2021, we argued it wasn't the start of a shift to a higher, more volatile inflation regime. Despite the big spike since, we maintain this view. In this webinar we explore some of the inflation lessons from the pandemic and assess the extent to which we have entered a new era for inflation targeting.

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Webinar
Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

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Webinar
Asset allocation perspectives in a stronger for longer environment

with Daniel von Ahlen | Online | March 28, 2024

Our cross-asset framework points to a constructive stance on the global cycle and we think risk assets will outperform over the next 6-12m even if rich valuations suggest the upside will likely be limited. We suspect that the risk that inflation will stabilise above the Fed's target in H2 is still under priced by bond markets and remain cautious on duration. We discuss why equities will continue to edge higher but the pace of returns is likely to slow, and we see greater return potential in other asset classes such as credit.

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Webinar
How a global soft landing is (almost) in view

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | March 19, 2024

We examine how the global economy has confounded most expectations over the last year with inflation falling back towards target without large output losses. We consider key factors behind this including developments in labour markets, financial stresses, energy prices and fiscal policies. We also look at lingering ‘hard landing’ risks and in which geographies they are most prominent.

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Webinar
Eurozone: On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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