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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
China: Will the ‘New Three’ industries prove an economic game-changer?

with Louise Loo | Online | February 2, 2024

A step-up in decarbonisation efforts has boosted growth in the new industries of electric vehicles, batteries, and renewables in China. To what extent are these proving to be the economy's new growth drivers? What can authorities do about the risk of overcapacity? Can these industries offset the macro drag from a shrinking housing sector?

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Webinar
ETC tourism trends and prospects: Q4 2023

with Chloe Parkins, Dave Goodger and Menno Van IJseel | Online | January 25, 2024

Tourism Economics will provide an overview of the latest tourism sector trends and outlook in Europe. This will include how international travel performed towards the end of 2023, with more countries verging on recovery. Further to this, we will delve into the prospects for recovery from China and other longer-haul markets.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Middle East escalation

with Jamie Thompson | Online | December 12, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We examine the risks posed by an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the potential fall-out from increased China-Taiwan tensions and a period of higher for longer interest rates. We also highlight the latest findings from our regular Global Risk Surveys.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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Webinar
Commodities: prospects uncertain amid tepid Chinese demand, Fed tightness and potential further OPEC+ supply reductions

with Kiran Ahmed and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | September 19, 2023

Commodity markets remain carefully balanced amid uncertain Chinese demand, a tighter Fed policy outlook and the potential for further supply reductions by OPEC+ members. Recent stimulus efforts aimed at the Chinese property sector have given some cause for optimism but doubts remain as to the longevity of any demand rally. At the same time, the natural gas sector readies itself for the winter season amid significantly improved circumstances than were present this time last year.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Taiwan tensions

with Jamie Thompson, Chris Parfit and Jennifer Colosi | Online | September 11, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We explore the risks posed by increased China-Taiwan tensions, as well as the potential for a stronger consumer-led recovery.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
China at the half-year mark: Is the glass half empty or half full?

with Lloyd Chan and Louise Loo | Online | August 16, 2023

The near-term macro outlook on China looks especially foggy. There’s more stimulus but not the ones we’re used to. More property weakness but a hard-landing still appears remote. New growth areas but the regulatory environment remains cautious. Join us as we discuss the implications of recent developments to our outlook.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
China and India – shifting issues, shifting roles

with Alexandra Hermann and Louise Loo | Online | June 21, 2023

China’s population has peaked and its industrial engines have struggled despite this year’s reopening. The longer-term outlook is beset by meaningful structural headwinds, an uncertain regulatory policy, geopolitical tensions with the US. Enter India, a vast and young workforce has the potential to benefit from the ongoing supply chain diversification away from China. We provide our takes on the near- and medium-term outlooks for both economies and discuss how the two economic giants could both co-exist and compete in this new economic world order.

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Webinar
Why air travel is set to soar ahead again in 2023

with Dave Goodger | Online | June 20, 2023

Air passenger demand data for early-2023 indicates further significant improvements over 2022’s partial demand recovery. Despite a subdued economic backdrop, forward looking data across May to September show little sign of this recovery taking any reprieve and activity is set to surpass 2019 levels towards the end of the year. The re-opening of the Chinese international travel market is providing some additional reasons for optimism. Tourism Economics and IATA will share latest data, trends and the outlook in this webinar.

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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Commodities demand: China to the rescue?

with Toby Whittington, Diego Cacciapuoti, Kiran Ahmed and Stephen Hare | Online | March 23, 2023

China’s abrupt reopening caused commodity prices to jump earlier this year but questions remain about the strength of its recovery. We examine the extent to which China will support commodity demand this year whilst also discussing the supply-side outlook in commodity markets and implications for prices.

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Webinar
Brighter skies ahead for global air passenger demand

with Stephen Rooney and Paulos Ashebir Lakew | Online | March 21, 2023

While the economic slowdown is weighing on air passenger demand growth in advanced economies, excess savings will continue to allow realisation and prioritisation of some lingering pent-up demand. Domestic passenger volumes are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year in a number of markets, including the US. Growth will now be more evident for emerging markets, and notably for China with a clear timeline for re-opening now established and some uptick in outbound travel demand already evident as a result.

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