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US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Economy will soon enter a recession

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | November 18, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the recent tightening in financial market conditions will drive the US economy into a mild recession in 2023. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer won’t be immune to an increase in the unemployment rate and reduction in excess savings. The recession will be a garden variety downturn because there are no glaring imbalances. Tune in to learn where the US economy is headed in 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for US metros.

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Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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