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Webinar
For Asia, the Trump regime is not just about tariffs

with Arup Raha | Online | February 20, 2025

We are about a month into the Trump presidency and Asia appears to be coping quite well despite the continued looming fear of tariffs. However, the financial markets have been reacting since September of last year, with higher US bond yields and a stronger US dollar. These developments are likely to affect Asian growth prospects and also the ability of policy to respond. We draw out the implications. Plus: Could AI be China’s magic potion out of stagnation?

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Webinar
Commodity key themes 2025: Another volatile year for commodity markets as Trump 2.0 looms

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Diego Cacciapuoti and Samuel Bakst | Online | December 16, 2024

In this webinar, we explore the key themes driving commodity markets in 2025. We expect the US will impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports next year, and that China will retaliate, weakening economic growth and commodity demand. Trump will also likely make major energy policy announcements early next year, intending to expand US oil production and boost LNG exports. We anticipate the US dollar will strengthen next year, putting further downward pressure on commodity prices. Furthermore, China, by far the largest consumer of commodities and with a structurally slowing economy, will drag on commodity demand next year without further stimulus, while OPEC+ faces another challenging year as the group sets to unwind production cuts.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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