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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – Differentiated outcomes

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Felicity Hannon and Charlie Muir | Online | April 22, 2024

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of six climate scenarios against our Oxford Economics baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter, we examine the cross-country and cross-scenario effects in more detail. This helps us better understand how different economic structures and policies can result in differing economic impacts from climate risk. For this webinar, we do a deep dive on select countries such as the US, China, and France.

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Webinar
Cities in the medium term: we pick the likely winners and losers over the next five years

with Lawrence Harper-Scott, Barbara Denham and Richard Holt | Online | April 11, 2024

Among leading cities in the US, we forecast stable GDP growth in 2024, but decelerating growth over the subsequent four years. In Europe in contrast, the short-term outlook for the largest cities remains subdued, but the medium-term picture looks set to improve. In this webinar we will explain our views, and we will identify the likely winners and losers among cities around the world.

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Webinar
Risks to a US soft landing

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | April 9, 2024

The economy is chugging along, and the outlook continues to turn a little rosier because of the strength of the labor market, easing in financial market conditions, solid household and nonfinancial corporate balance sheets along with disinflation. However, the economy is expected to moderate, leaving it vulnerable to anything that goes wrong.

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Webinar
Winter forecast update: US Industry and Tech Spending outlook

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | February 14, 2024

Our US Industry economists will provide an update on the latest US industry trends and outlook for 2024. This will include a discussion on key themes for the year, such as private sector spending on Tech Services and how we expect the Service sector to continue to outperform relative to the industrial economy. The more robust growth in manufacturing and service subsectors, like information services and electronics, is driven, in part, by strong end-user demand and a normalization of supply dynamics.

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Webinar
Latin America: Travel & Tourism sectors to drive growth across the region

with Jessie Smith and Joan Domene | Online | January 31, 2024

While we forecast economic growth in Latin America to be slightly weaker in 2024 than in 2023, the region will still outperform most advanced economies. Leading this growth will be the travel & tourism sector as consumers in major markets continue to prioritise leisure travel spending. Caribbean and Central American destinations have been among the top performers, benefitting from resurgent US demand and the strength of the US Dollar, including the remarkable return and expansion of cruise activity. In this webinar we will look at economic activity, including key demand drivers and the prospects for more widespread travel recovery as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
The neutral rate has risen, but by less than most think

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | November 20, 2023

When will US policy rates start to fall, and how far? To help answer this, we have updated our estimates of the long-run US neutral interest rate. We discuss the extent to which the neutral rate has shifted due to fundamental structural forces and critically examine claims that the world has entered a period of perpetually high interest rates.

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Webinar
US macro and metro outlook: slow growth ahead

with Barbara Byrne Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | November 13, 2023

The US economy is heading into Q4 with plenty of momentum. However, this strength will wane next year, as robust consumer spending has been fueled by an unsustainable decline in savings. In addition, the tightening of financial conditions from higher bond yields and more restrictive fiscal policy will constrain growth in 2024. We see the economy slowing down to well below its potential growth rate next year but averting an outright recession. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on metro-level job growth and demographic shifts.

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Webinar
US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?

with Michael Pearce and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | October 31, 2023

The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.

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Webinar
US Construction Outlook- Cost Increases & Labour Shortages

with Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | September 26, 2023

2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions?2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions? • How does the outlook vary across states and metros? • When will residential construction activity rebound? • What do construction industry capacity constraints mean for the delivery of the IIJA? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs? • What is our outlook for construction costs?

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Webinar
US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | July 11, 2023

The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit conditions tighten further. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how bad the damage will be.

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Webinar
China and India – shifting issues, shifting roles

with Alexandra Hermann and Louise Loo | Online | June 21, 2023

China’s population has peaked and its industrial engines have struggled despite this year’s reopening. The longer-term outlook is beset by meaningful structural headwinds, an uncertain regulatory policy, geopolitical tensions with the US. Enter India, a vast and young workforce has the potential to benefit from the ongoing supply chain diversification away from China. We provide our takes on the near- and medium-term outlooks for both economies and discuss how the two economic giants could both co-exist and compete in this new economic world order.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Outlook for US business spending through recession and recovery

with Mark Killion and Ryan Sweet | Online | June 1, 2023

US companies face headwinds from higher capital costs and looming recession. Which industries will retain or restrain their spending during the economic slowdown and subsequent recovery? How will business spending on technology products and related machinery be impacted?

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Webinar
EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Webinar
Tech spending by US businesses will decline in the second half of 2023 but recover to over $2 trillion by 2025

with Mark Killion and Victoria Tribone | Online | May 4, 2023

New headwinds facing US business spending will cause a decline in their purchase of technology products during second half of 2023, before a modest 3% recovery in 2024 accelerates to 5.6% gain in 2025. Which industries will lead the spending on technology, and what products will be the focus of their purchases? Mark Killion, CFA, Director of US Industries, and Victoria Tribone, Economist in the Oxford Economics Industry Service, will present the latest forecast for US purchases of enterprise technology products, including possible impacts from several alternate scenarios.

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