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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Outlook for US business spending through recession and recovery

with Mark Killion and Ryan Sweet | Online | June 1, 2023

US companies face headwinds from higher capital costs and looming recession. Which industries will retain or restrain their spending during the economic slowdown and subsequent recovery? How will business spending on technology products and related machinery be impacted?

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Webinar
EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Webinar
Tech spending by US businesses will decline in the second half of 2023 but recover to over $2 trillion by 2025

with Mark Killion and Victoria Tribone | Online | May 4, 2023

New headwinds facing US business spending will cause a decline in their purchase of technology products during second half of 2023, before a modest 3% recovery in 2024 accelerates to 5.6% gain in 2025. Which industries will lead the spending on technology, and what products will be the focus of their purchases? Mark Killion, CFA, Director of US Industries, and Victoria Tribone, Economist in the Oxford Economics Industry Service, will present the latest forecast for US purchases of enterprise technology products, including possible impacts from several alternate scenarios.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Brighter skies ahead for global air passenger demand

with Stephen Rooney and Paulos Ashebir Lakew | Online | March 21, 2023

While the economic slowdown is weighing on air passenger demand growth in advanced economies, excess savings will continue to allow realisation and prioritisation of some lingering pent-up demand. Domestic passenger volumes are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year in a number of markets, including the US. Growth will now be more evident for emerging markets, and notably for China with a clear timeline for re-opening now established and some uptick in outbound travel demand already evident as a result.

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Webinar
Global Construction Futures – global construction up US$4.2 trillion by 2037

with Graham Robinson, Jeremy Leonard, James (Aon), Tariq (Aon) and Bob (Aon) | Online | March 16, 2023

As China pivots from its Zero Covid policy and with growth in the US and most European markets expected to be negative or flatlining this year – what are the medium- and longer-term futures for the global construction industry? We expect growth engines to drive global construction up US$4.1 trillion by 2037. Global Construction Futures is the next in a series of global forecasts for construction to be published by Oxford Economics with the support of the global Construction and Infrastructure leadership team at Aon. Global Construction Futures will be launched on 16 March 2023 to a global construction industry audience. Oxford Economics will present the key highlights from the forecasts for construction and a panel of industry leaders will give their perspectives on the global construction market.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar
US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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Webinar
Meeting the challenges of new US regulation linked to climate change

with Jake Kuyer, Felicity Hannon, Neil Walker and Alex Mackle | Online | January 10, 2023

The regulatory environment surrounding climate change is shifting rapidly, with the SEC proposing new climate related disclosure requirements and the Fed announcing the introduction of climate stress testing. Join our panel of experts, as they discuss the implications of the new regulatory environment and how best to meet the challenges and opportunities these developments will create.

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Webinar
Raw materials, wages, and the US construction outlook

with Abby Samp, Barbara Denham and Stephen Hare | Online | December 5, 2022

Rising commodity prices, wages, and interest rates are all expected to weigh on the US construction outlook through the course of 2023. Join Stephen Hare, Barbara Denham, and Abby Samp as they discuss these factors impacting US construction, including a look at the sub-national outlook.

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Webinar
Les économies européenne et mondiale face à l’hiver et aux banques centrales

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani and Pierre Delage | Online | November 22, 2022

L’économie française et européenne font face à la double menace des pressions inflationnistes et de la crise énergétique, avec des perspectives globales négatives aux US et en Chine. Le scénario global d’une croissance prise entre stagflation et resserrement monétaire font crainde une récession dans les pays avancés.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Economy will soon enter a recession

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | November 18, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the recent tightening in financial market conditions will drive the US economy into a mild recession in 2023. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer won’t be immune to an increase in the unemployment rate and reduction in excess savings. The recession will be a garden variety downturn because there are no glaring imbalances. Tune in to learn where the US economy is headed in 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for US metros.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Why the US neutral rate will fall below pre-pandemic lows

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | October 20, 2022

With US policy rates rising until inflation is clearly under control, we ask what will happen once inflation normalizes. To help answer this, we estimated the US neutral interest rate and the extent to which it has shifted due to fundamental, structural forces. We find that the neutral rate, having fallen strongly since 1970, will remain low through 2050, and we explain and quantify how nine secular forces are behind this.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Webinar
Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Challenges mount but recession hasn’t arrived

with Oren Klachkin and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | August 11, 2022

The recovery’s best days are clearly in the rear-view mirror as the economy confronts persistently hot inflation, tighter financial conditions, ongoing supply chain stress, downbeat sentiment and softening spending. US industrial growth has slowed in the face of these challenges and services are not immune from these headwinds. Odds of a recession are rising, but there is still a pathway to a soft landing. Tune in to this webinar to learn where the US economy is headed through the rest of 2022 and into 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for industries.

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