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Webinar
US Industry 2025 Outlook: Productivity gains & fiscal policy to drive a strong year

with Ahmed Abdelmeguid and Joe Monahan | Online | January 30, 2025

This webinar will present the US industrial outlook. Our latest forecasts are heavily influenced by assumptions regarding the incoming administration's policies, will boost near-term industry growth but introduce medium-term risks. Additionally, ongoing productivity improvements have led to upward revisions in our service sector forecasts.

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Webinar
Canada Key Themes 2025 – Policy shocks buffet slow-growing economy

with Michael Davenport and Tony Stillo | Online | January 28, 2025

In this webinar, we'll examine four key questions that will shape the Canadian economy in 2025. How much will easier financial conditions and a resilient global backdrop support growth? Will prevailing imbalances continue to weigh on the Canadian economy? To what extent will a shrinking population from Canada's new immigration policy slow growth? How might uncertain policy shocks in Canada and the US reshape economic prospects?

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Webinar
The State of the US Consumer in 2025

with Alex Mackle, Barbara Byrne Denham and Michael Pearce | Online | January 24, 2025

The US consumer is in a strong position heading into 2025. But beneath the headline strength, there are question marks around how much consumer spending is being driven by high-income consumers, and the pressures low-income consumers face, as well as how the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration will affect consumer spending patterns. In this event we will be covering: Strength of the US consumer in 2025. High vs low-income consumer outlook. Implications of the election result on the US consumer outlook. Consumer spending outlook at the state and metro level. Key risks to the consumer outlook. Key strategy insights for B2C corporates from our outlook.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service Webinar – Evolving pathways

with Beatrice Tanjangco and Samuel Holguera | Online | January 17, 2025

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of six climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. Our climate scenarios this quarter feature updated assumptions following new data from the IEA and NGFS. This webinar will have a geographic focus on the United States and will discuss potential shifts in global climate ambition in 2025.

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Webinar
Economic key themes of China and India for 2025

with Alexandra Hermann and Betty Wang | Online | December 17, 2024

Increased uncertainty about trade disruptions and the policy mix shape the outlook for 2025 globally. China will likely be at the centre of a possible escalation of the trade war that already started during Trump’s first term. Domestically, China also faces lingering deflationary risks. Authorities have launched short-term policy stimulus, but demand-side reforms like improving social security nets are still lagging. India, meanwhile, with its largely domestically focused economy will likely be less impacted by the new US administration's fiscal and trade policies. Key to watch will be how strong private consumption demand will grow against a backdrop of structurally weak labour markets.

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Webinar
Commodity key themes 2025: Another volatile year for commodity markets as Trump 2.0 looms

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Diego Cacciapuoti and Samuel Bakst | Online | December 16, 2024

In this webinar, we explore the key themes driving commodity markets in 2025. We expect the US will impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports next year, and that China will retaliate, weakening economic growth and commodity demand. Trump will also likely make major energy policy announcements early next year, intending to expand US oil production and boost LNG exports. We anticipate the US dollar will strengthen next year, putting further downward pressure on commodity prices. Furthermore, China, by far the largest consumer of commodities and with a structurally slowing economy, will drag on commodity demand next year without further stimulus, while OPEC+ faces another challenging year as the group sets to unwind production cuts.

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Webinar
The global implications of rising US tariffs

with Adam Slater and Daniel Harenberg | Online | December 9, 2024

In this webinar we take a closer look at the potential implications of further rises in US tariffs on the global economy, using evidence from the US-China trade war and explore how damaging it would be for the world economy of a further escalation

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Webinar
Asia key economic themes for 2025

with Arup Raha | Online | November 26, 2024

We look at the key themes likely to play out in Asian economies over 2025. In particular, we look at the effects of likely US trade and monetary policy. Within Asiam, we discuss how China is likely to responds to a structural domestic slowdown and external headwinds. Lastly, we look at how AI may shape Asia's growth story.

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Webinar
US economic key themes for 2025

with Ryan Sweet | Online | November 25, 2024

We remain more optimistic than the consensus on the US and expect its period of growth exceptionalism to continue. Policy uncertainty will remain high but this isn’t the first, nor the last, the economy has dealt with elevated uncertainty. Businesses can quickly adapt and the prospects for expansionary fiscal policy on top of an already solid backdrop for US consumer spending and investment, the US economy will likely further distance itself from the rest of the pack.   

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Webinar
Global economic key themes for 2025

with Ben May | Online | November 20, 2024

There is a strong consensus amongst forecasters that global growth is likely to hold broadly stable next year. While we see little reason to disagree, in our latest webinar we highlight the key themes which we think will have a crucial bearing on next year's likely relative winners and losers.

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Webinar
The near- and long-term economic impact of the US election

with Bernard Yaros and Ryan Sweet | Online | November 11, 2024

Former President Donald Trump will return to the White House next year, with Republicans likely controlling both the House of Representatives and Senate. Lawmakers will have to address three major fiscal deadlines in 2025: the debt limit, the expiring Trump tax cuts, and FY2026 government funding. Meaningful actions on tax and spending policy are in store. Meanwhile, a Trump White House will proceed unilaterally on trade and immigration policy. We will focus on changes to the baseline forecast and the risks to the US outlook, including fiscal sustainability.

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Webinar
What 2025 and a second Trump presidency holds for Latin America

with Tim Hunter and Mauricio Monge | Online | September 27, 2024

Growth dynamics next year will differ across Latin America's six largest economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – but most economies will experience an acceleration in growth. However, this contrasts with a consumer outlook which is losing steam, and instead we see investment and trade as driving higher growth in 2025. This will come with support from US and domestic monetary policy easing, as inflation will broadly be at target. We will explore the stories affecting individual economies, such as the risk of judicial reform in Mexico to investment and the impact of President Milei’s radical reforms in Argentina. November will bring the US presidential election, and we will examine the impacts on Latin America of a new trade war under a second Trump presidency.

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Webinar
Global outlook: Ignore the doomsayers, but don’t expect 2025 fireworks either

with Ben May | Online | September 9, 2024

In this webinar we look at global growth prospects for 2025. We believe that recent jitters about US growth prospects are overdone, while US GDP growth will slow a bit, this will not lead to substantive deceleration in global growth. In fact, our baseline forecast is for the world economy to expand by 2.7% for the third year running next year.

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Webinar
Asian economies face rising risks

with Arup Raha and Adam Samdin | Online | August 26, 2024

Over the last few weeks, Asian financial markets have been more volatile than usual. Part of this volatility has come as markets seem to have rethought their views on US interest rates and the Japanese economy. Market variables have retraced, but the questions still remain about the global economic outlook. We draw out the implications for Asia.

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Webinar
US Outlook: Tech, services will continue to drive US output

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | August 13, 2024

In this webinar the US industrial outlook, and emerging trends in the tech sector will be presented. While industrial growth will further slow, service sectors production will drive growth in 2025. These sectors' spending on technology remains elevated, boosted by increased revenue and demand for their products.

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