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Webinar
What 2025 and a second Trump presidency holds for Latin America

with Tim Hunter and Mauricio Monge | Online | September 27, 2024

Growth dynamics next year will differ across Latin America's six largest economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – but most economies will experience an acceleration in growth. However, this contrasts with a consumer outlook which is losing steam, and instead we see investment and trade as driving higher growth in 2025. This will come with support from US and domestic monetary policy easing, as inflation will broadly be at target. We will explore the stories affecting individual economies, such as the risk of judicial reform in Mexico to investment and the impact of President Milei’s radical reforms in Argentina. November will bring the US presidential election, and we will examine the impacts on Latin America of a new trade war under a second Trump presidency.

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Webinar
Global outlook: Ignore the doomsayers, but don’t expect 2025 fireworks either

with Ben May | Online | September 9, 2024

In this webinar we look at global growth prospects for 2025. We believe that recent jitters about US growth prospects are overdone, while US GDP growth will slow a bit, this will not lead to substantive deceleration in global growth. In fact, our baseline forecast is for the world economy to expand by 2.7% for the third year running next year.

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Webinar
Asian economies face rising risks

with Arup Raha and Adam Samdin | Online | August 26, 2024

Over the last few weeks, Asian financial markets have been more volatile than usual. Part of this volatility has come as markets seem to have rethought their views on US interest rates and the Japanese economy. Market variables have retraced, but the questions still remain about the global economic outlook. We draw out the implications for Asia.

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Webinar
US Outlook: Tech, services will continue to drive US output

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | August 13, 2024

In this webinar the US industrial outlook, and emerging trends in the tech sector will be presented. While industrial growth will further slow, service sectors production will drive growth in 2025. These sectors' spending on technology remains elevated, boosted by increased revenue and demand for their products.

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Webinar
How to navigate the latest policy adjustments and disinflation in Latin America

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | July 10, 2024

Earlier in the year, the speed of the disinflationary process peaked and headline inflation has returned to target ranges in most countries, except for Mexico and Colombia. While services inflation remain high, we expect a broad deceleration of core items, partially offsetting upside pressure from a likely rebound in volatile non-core prices. In the next 12 months, we expect most headline inflation to remain broadly within target ranges. However, multiple factors have narrowed the space for policy cuts in the region. Join our expert Economists as we explore these factors and how you can navigate these upcoming scenarios.

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Webinar
Global industry forecast update: Momentum is building

with Jeremy Leonard and Nico Palesch | Online | June 13, 2024

After two years of relatively sluggish activity we see signs that the worst has passed for global industry. Join our global industry team to get the latest on why we think the turnaround is imminent and in which regions and sectors it will be most keenly felt. Major themes include Europe, which has dug itself into a deep hole with respect to manufacturing activity over the past year, and why we think it on the verge of turning the corner back to growth and how US industry is expected to cope in and after what is expected to be a closely-fought and volatile election year. In the Asia-Pacific region we will discuss how Japan is dealing with the aftermath of the Daihatsu production line scandal that seriously dented Q1 industrial output and the extent to which China can continue relying on manufacturing sector output to boost overall growth amidst a volatile global environment, the threat of tariffs, and persistent worries around overcapacity.

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Webinar
Putting the health of the US consumer under the microscope

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | June 13, 2024

In this webinar we look at the health of the consumer and how the strength of the labor market, rising asset prices, inflation and interest rates impact those across the income distribution. We will explore the reasons behind the rise in consumer delinquency rates and whether rising use of buy-now-pay later services is a warning sign.

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Webinar
The impact of the strong dollar on emerging markets

with Adam Slater and Ben May | Online | May 28, 2024

We examine the potential impact of the recent rise in the dollar on emerging markets, looking at the channels by which the dollar can impact emerging countries, how these impacts have played out so far and might have changed over time and the outlook and risks going forward.

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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – Differentiated outcomes

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Felicity Hannon and Charlie Muir | Online | April 22, 2024

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of six climate scenarios against our Oxford Economics baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter, we examine the cross-country and cross-scenario effects in more detail. This helps us better understand how different economic structures and policies can result in differing economic impacts from climate risk. For this webinar, we do a deep dive on select countries such as the US, China, and France.

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Webinar
Cities in the medium term: we pick the likely winners and losers over the next five years

with Lawrence Harper-Scott, Barbara Denham and Richard Holt | Online | April 11, 2024

Among leading cities in the US, we forecast stable GDP growth in 2024, but decelerating growth over the subsequent four years. In Europe in contrast, the short-term outlook for the largest cities remains subdued, but the medium-term picture looks set to improve. In this webinar we will explain our views, and we will identify the likely winners and losers among cities around the world.

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Webinar
Risks to a US soft landing

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | April 9, 2024

The economy is chugging along, and the outlook continues to turn a little rosier because of the strength of the labor market, easing in financial market conditions, solid household and nonfinancial corporate balance sheets along with disinflation. However, the economy is expected to moderate, leaving it vulnerable to anything that goes wrong.

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Webinar
Winter forecast update: US Industry and Tech Spending outlook

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | February 14, 2024

Our US Industry economists will provide an update on the latest US industry trends and outlook for 2024. This will include a discussion on key themes for the year, such as private sector spending on Tech Services and how we expect the Service sector to continue to outperform relative to the industrial economy. The more robust growth in manufacturing and service subsectors, like information services and electronics, is driven, in part, by strong end-user demand and a normalization of supply dynamics.

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Webinar
Latin America: Travel & Tourism sectors to drive growth across the region

with Jessie Smith and Joan Domene | Online | January 31, 2024

While we forecast economic growth in Latin America to be slightly weaker in 2024 than in 2023, the region will still outperform most advanced economies. Leading this growth will be the travel & tourism sector as consumers in major markets continue to prioritise leisure travel spending. Caribbean and Central American destinations have been among the top performers, benefitting from resurgent US demand and the strength of the US Dollar, including the remarkable return and expansion of cruise activity. In this webinar we will look at economic activity, including key demand drivers and the prospects for more widespread travel recovery as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
The neutral rate has risen, but by less than most think

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | November 20, 2023

When will US policy rates start to fall, and how far? To help answer this, we have updated our estimates of the long-run US neutral interest rate. We discuss the extent to which the neutral rate has shifted due to fundamental structural forces and critically examine claims that the world has entered a period of perpetually high interest rates.

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Webinar
US macro and metro outlook: slow growth ahead

with Barbara Byrne Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | November 13, 2023

The US economy is heading into Q4 with plenty of momentum. However, this strength will wane next year, as robust consumer spending has been fueled by an unsustainable decline in savings. In addition, the tightening of financial conditions from higher bond yields and more restrictive fiscal policy will constrain growth in 2024. We see the economy slowing down to well below its potential growth rate next year but averting an outright recession. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on metro-level job growth and demographic shifts.

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