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Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
Energy Disorder

with David Winter and Manuela Kiehl | Online | July 19, 2023

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Energy Disorder – demonstrates the cost of policy action that prioritises energy security over decarbonisation. Weak mitigation across sectors causes high physical climate damages. Protectionism associated with regionalisation and more divisive international relations generates trade frictions that cause further hits to output.

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Webinar
Deglobalisation or “slowbalisation”?

with Niti Gupta and Sebastien Tillett | Online | July 5, 2023

There is increasing concern that we are entering a period of deglobalisation. A heightened sense of geopolitical risk and stress within global supply chains following the Covid pandemic and the Russia Ukraine are contributing to fears of a retreat in global trade growth. A series of targeted interventionalist policies by the West towards countries reliant on importing advanced technology and rising US-China tensions are only adding fuel to this fire. In this webinar, we explore whether these fears are warranted in our view and what is visible in the trade data.

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Webinar
A Globally Tight Supply Chain; what could it mean for your demand and supply?

with Darren Anderson and Caroline Franklin | Online | October 27, 2022

The global trade market has undergone a significant upheaval in the past three years, but in a largely synchronous fashion with what was first a global slowdown in spending and then a rapid uptick in consumer goods and building materials. A third wave appears on the horizon as central banks are consciously seeking to temper demand.

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Scaling the great wall of trade barriers

with BIS Oxford Economics | Online | November 25, 2021

Australia's trade relationship with China has been rocky over the past year. When trade tensions first emerged, we quantified which products we saw as most vulnerable to trade barriers in China, and the data over 2021 to date have largely borne out these findings. However, Australia's overall export performance has weathered these disruptions reasonably well, with exporters on average able to pivot into alternate markets.

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