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Webinar
South Africa’s GNU turns one but continues to underwhelm

with Jee-A van der Linde and Louw Nel | Online | June 27, 2025

A year since the government of national unity (GNU) came into being, South Africa’s ruling coalition is still struggling to find its groove. The alliance’s main achievement is that it has avoided collapse, but there have been near misses. The optimism that greeted the GNU’s formation has moderated as the difficulty of working together becomes more apparent. In this webinar, we consider how the GNU performed in relation to expectations and ponder what to expect next.

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Webinar
Asia-Pacific industrial outlook remains cloudy despite easing China-US tensions

with Makoto Tsuchiya and Toby Whittington | Online | June 18, 2025

The agreement to lower US tariffs against China to “only” 30% may improve prospects there somewhat, but the region as a whole is still set for sluggish growth in industrial activity. Trade diversion and supply chain reorganisation may present opportunities for some countries, but the strong possibility of additional tariffs on key export sectors such as consumer electronics and semiconductors will cast a long shadow.

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Webinar
Global pumps market outlook 2025

with Jeremy Leonard and Kiran Ahmed | Online | June 5, 2025

The ongoing trade war has curtailed global economic growth. And even as tariffs are rolled back, uncertainty, and the impact on business investment, will remain in the near term. Against this backdrop, we set out our forecasts for the global pump market and discuss the risks to our baseline forecasts.

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Webinar
Air passenger demand outlook

with Dave Goodger and Stephen Rooney | Online | June 3, 2025

In this webinar Tourism Economics' will share the latest outlook for air passenger demand and the underlying macroeconomic developments influencing it, including ongoing trade friction and uncertainty emanating from the United States. The outlook for air passenger demand under different macroeconomic scenario conditions will also be covered. Air passenger data and trends covered in this webinar can be found in Tourism Economics and IATA's joint Air Passenger Forecast service.

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Webinar
Navigating trade uncertainty: global trade shifts and long-term consequences

with Benjamin Trevis, Daniel Moseley and Jed Cartledge | Online | May 29, 2025

Please join us for this webinar as we present how our Q2 2025 Megatrends Scenarios can help you navigate long-term uncertainty. We explore how different scenarios for global trade could shape long-term economic outcomes. In our Fractured World scenario, sustained geopolitical tensions drive widespread trade barriers and greater fragmentation over the next several decades. In contrast, the Tech Revolution scenario features a retreat from protectionism, fostering stability, increased investment, and accelerated adoption of technologies such as AI relative to our baseline.

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Webinar
LatAm será resiliente ante la desaceleración del comercio global

with Debora Reyna Garcia and Mauricio Monge | Online | May 9, 2025

La mayoría de los países latinoamericanos enfrentarán impactos arancelarios directos muy limitados, dada su menor dependencia de las exportaciones hacia EE. UU. y las exclusiones que benefician a las principales materias primas exportadas por la región. Sin embargo, posibles efectos de segundo orden, como la caída en los precios de algunas materias primas y la respuesta de China, moldearán las consecuencias. Por el momento, esperamos que la resiliencia de la demanda interna compense parcialmente la desaceleración del comercio global, con la excepción de México, donde se sentirá con mayor intensidad el impacto de la guerra comercial. Consideramos que los riesgos para la inflación derivados de la guerra comercial ahora están más equilibrados que hace unos meses.

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Webinar
Trump 2.0: Global Trade, Tariffs & Economic Shifts

with Innes McFee, Ben May, Geoffroy Dolphin, Jeremy Leonard, Scott McEwan and Tony Stillo | Online | May 7, 2025

In part two, of our Trump 2.0 webinar series, we explore the international consequences of President Trump’s return to power. With initial tariffs far exceeding expectations, we will discuss renewed tariff tensions, shifting alliances, supply chain disruptions and global market uncertainty. We will examine how the first 100 days have shaped the global economic landscape — and what the ripple effects may be in the months to come. We’ll focus on cross-border trade, sector-level impact, climate and the evolving role of the US to its neighbours and globally.

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Webinar
LatAm got it easy in Trump’s tariffs, but pressure on Mexico continues

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | April 29, 2025

We will examine what US tariffs mean for the region. Most Latin American countries face lower direct trade disruptions than Asian and European competitors from President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Lower dependence on US trade and tariff exclusions will limit direct impacts, but second round effects, lower commodity prices and China’s response will shape the fallout for the region. Mexico’s especially conciliatory stance has not yet yielded substantial concessions and downside risks to our outlook grow as Trump doubles down on attacks to its closest trade partner.

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Webinar
Can the economy weather the policy storm?

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | April 3, 2025

The narrative around US policymaking and its growth impacts this year. Tax and spending changes wouldn't take effect until next year, while immigration restrictions would slowly weigh on the economy, as not all recent immigrants immediately participate in the labour market and past immigrant cohorts would support growth in labour supply this year. However, the biggest wild card in our forecast has always been trade policy but DOGE is an emerging risk. Deregulation is an upside risk to the near-term forecast as it could boost productivity growth and business investment. This webinar will discuss how the policy landscape, the near-term economic outlook and what is ahead for the Federal Reserve.

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Webinar
Global travel growth opportunities amid tariff and trade uncertainty

with Helen McDermott and Chloe Parkins | Online | April 2, 2025

2025 is off to an interesting start for global travel. Two months into his second term, President Trump has begun to implement tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and the EU and has signalled he may go further on these measures and recent data is beginning to shed light on the potential impacts on travel. In this webinar, we examine who has the most to lose in the global trade war and what opportunities remain across global travel activity.

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Webinar
Tariffs to shake up Asia-Pacific’s industrial sectors

with Toby Whittington and Makoto Tsuchiya | Online | March 20, 2025

The industrial outlook for the Asia-Pacific region this year will be mired by tariff barriers, trade uncertainties and structural economic shifts. China is at the forefront of the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, but the impacts will be felt across the region. The realignment of trade flows as firms seek to avoid tariffs on China will create opportunities for some regional players, particularly in the high-tech sector where economies such as Taiwan and Korea have well-established high-end production know-how, while emerging economies in South East Asia are increasingly trying to move up the value chain. This webinar will explore these shifting trade relationships and how they will impact short and medium-term industry trends within APAC.

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Webinar
Economic key themes of China and India for 2025

with Alexandra Hermann and Betty Wang | Online | December 17, 2024

Increased uncertainty about trade disruptions and the policy mix shape the outlook for 2025 globally. China will likely be at the centre of a possible escalation of the trade war that already started during Trump’s first term. Domestically, China also faces lingering deflationary risks. Authorities have launched short-term policy stimulus, but demand-side reforms like improving social security nets are still lagging. India, meanwhile, with its largely domestically focused economy will likely be less impacted by the new US administration's fiscal and trade policies. Key to watch will be how strong private consumption demand will grow against a backdrop of structurally weak labour markets.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
Energy Disorder

with David Winter and Manuela Kiehl | Online | July 19, 2023

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Energy Disorder – demonstrates the cost of policy action that prioritises energy security over decarbonisation. Weak mitigation across sectors causes high physical climate damages. Protectionism associated with regionalisation and more divisive international relations generates trade frictions that cause further hits to output.

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Webinar
Deglobalisation or “slowbalisation”?

with Niti Gupta and Sebastien Tillett | Online | July 5, 2023

There is increasing concern that we are entering a period of deglobalisation. A heightened sense of geopolitical risk and stress within global supply chains following the Covid pandemic and the Russia Ukraine are contributing to fears of a retreat in global trade growth. A series of targeted interventionalist policies by the West towards countries reliant on importing advanced technology and rising US-China tensions are only adding fuel to this fire. In this webinar, we explore whether these fears are warranted in our view and what is visible in the trade data.

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Webinar
A Globally Tight Supply Chain; what could it mean for your demand and supply?

with Darren Anderson and Caroline Franklin | Online | October 27, 2022

The global trade market has undergone a significant upheaval in the past three years, but in a largely synchronous fashion with what was first a global slowdown in spending and then a rapid uptick in consumer goods and building materials. A third wave appears on the horizon as central banks are consciously seeking to temper demand.

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Scaling the great wall of trade barriers

with BIS Oxford Economics | Online | November 25, 2021

Australia's trade relationship with China has been rocky over the past year. When trade tensions first emerged, we quantified which products we saw as most vulnerable to trade barriers in China, and the data over 2021 to date have largely borne out these findings. However, Australia's overall export performance has weathered these disruptions reasonably well, with exporters on average able to pivot into alternate markets.

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