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Webinar
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

with Louise Loo, Nicholas Fearnley and April Skinner | Online | April 2, 2024

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

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Webinar
Industry to rebuild momentum in 2024

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | March 14, 2024

As 2024 progresses global industrial activity should pick up and begin to rebuild some momentum. Pass-through from lower wholesale energy prices, a move past the peak of impacts from past rate hikes and a trough in the de-stocking cycle should benefit manufacturing activity in the advanced economies. In China, manufacturing activity is likely to be highly asymmetric in 2024, with growth concentrated in the energy transition adjacent ‘New Three’ industries, while the ongoing property sector slump will curtail construction and its supply chain.

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
China and India – shifting issues, shifting roles

with Alexandra Hermann and Louise Loo | Online | June 21, 2023

China’s population has peaked and its industrial engines have struggled despite this year’s reopening. The longer-term outlook is beset by meaningful structural headwinds, an uncertain regulatory policy, geopolitical tensions with the US. Enter India, a vast and young workforce has the potential to benefit from the ongoing supply chain diversification away from China. We provide our takes on the near- and medium-term outlooks for both economies and discuss how the two economic giants could both co-exist and compete in this new economic world order.

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Webinar
A Globally Tight Supply Chain; what could it mean for your demand and supply?

with Darren Anderson and Caroline Franklin | Online | October 27, 2022

The global trade market has undergone a significant upheaval in the past three years, but in a largely synchronous fashion with what was first a global slowdown in spending and then a rapid uptick in consumer goods and building materials. A third wave appears on the horizon as central banks are consciously seeking to temper demand.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Challenges mount but recession hasn’t arrived

with Oren Klachkin and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | August 11, 2022

The recovery’s best days are clearly in the rear-view mirror as the economy confronts persistently hot inflation, tighter financial conditions, ongoing supply chain stress, downbeat sentiment and softening spending. US industrial growth has slowed in the face of these challenges and services are not immune from these headwinds. Odds of a recession are rising, but there is still a pathway to a soft landing. Tune in to this webinar to learn where the US economy is headed through the rest of 2022 and into 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for industries.

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Webinar
Global uncertainties and the outlook for cities in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America

with Richard Holt and Scott McEwan | Online | July 19, 2022

2022 is proving to be yet another highly unpredictable year—but also one with large variations by global region and hence across different cities. Some are seeing strong tourism recoveries while others are struggling to emerge from lockdown. Some face manufacturing supply problems, while others are experiencing tech booms. Inflation is a major issue for many, but not all. In this webinar we will explore and explain the differences, and discuss how quickly, if at all, city economies will return to normal.

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Webinar
US Economic Outlook: Pathway to a softish landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | July 12, 2022

Recession headwinds have increased as the Fed is more aggressively front-loading rate hikes due to very sticky and elevated inflation. Despite the possibility of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there still remains a pathway, albeit narrowing, toward a softish landing. The easing of labor and product supply constraints and a still sizeable pool of consumer savings should underpin the expansion.

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Webinar
Eurozone outlook: Between recession risks and a booming summer

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | June 22, 2022

The list of risks facing the eurozone economy continues to grow. With inflation being stronger and more entrenched that previously expected, the ECB will be forced to implement a stronger monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to reel from persistent supply chain issues while consumers are suffering a massive hit to real incomes as a result of the inflation surge. Simultaneously, some sectors of the economy continue to outperform, with services, and in particular the outlook for the tourism sector looking bright ahead of the summer season.

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Webinar
Stagflation! We reveal EMs most vulnerable to nasty supply shock legacies

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | May 12, 2022

The great moderation of previous decades has given way to a period of ghastly aggravation. The key drivers of good times were good policy, good luck and structural change. Now things have reversed, and we reveal those EMs most at risk of longer term macro-instability, based on the views of our country economists and a simple scoring system based on key performance-metrics.

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Webinar
US Outlook: Shifting headwinds

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | April 12, 2022

The US economy faces shifting headwinds - Higher inflation and greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are overshadowing current concerns about Covid. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.2% this year and slow to 2.0% in 2023, but risks are tilted to the downside given the intensifying inflation shock, increased supply chain stress, a more hawkish Fed, and a large fiscal drag.

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Webinar
Rising risk of a higher inflation ‘regime’

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 17, 2022

We outline why the risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime, featuring inflation at 4% or more in the advanced economies for several years, has increased - and what we now think the probability of that risk is. We examine factors such as monetary growth, supply shocks, the broadness of price pressures, labour market developments and inflation expectations. We also look at some cross-country differences and recent changes in central bank behaviour.

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Webinar
CEE Key Themes 2022 – In for an eventful year

with Tomas Dvorak and Mateusz Urban | Online | February 2, 2022

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic. We expect consumer spending to boost growth in the later part of the year, while industry now appears to have turned the corner and is set for a strong 2022. But the recovery will be uneven, with a variety of downside risks threatening to make it bumpy. In the webinar, we will discuss our outlook for the CEE region, paying particularly close attention to the downside risks: persistently high inflation driven by structural factors, political uncertainty, input shortages and slower supply chain recovery. We will also cover the outlook for monetary and fiscal policies in the CEE, focusing on the hawkish turn of the region’s central banks and the disbursement of the NGEU funds.

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