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Webinar
US tariff hikes to cause global industrial recession

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | May 8, 2025

The significant escalation in US tariffs since early April is set to generate a shallow recession in global industry. The tariffs and surrounding economic uncertainty are set to weigh disproportionately on manufacturing activity. In this Webinar, Max Anderson and Abby Samp will explore the latest Global Industry Forecast update and the risk factors that leave a sector vulnerable to US-imposed tariffs.

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Webinar
Eurozone: tariff threat weighs on the outlook

with Mateusz Urban | Online | March 5, 2025

The eurozone economy remains stuck in a low gear and we have recently cut our growth forecasts as a result of our expectation of US tariffs on European imports being imposed over the coming months. While we still think the Eurozone economy is more likely to continue to grow at weak pace rather than fall into recession, the list of risk factors – ranging from more cautious households and firms to a full-blown trade war – remains long. In this webinar, we will discuss both the recent changes to our baseline and the risks around it, as well as their consequences for the fiscal and monetary policy outlook.

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Webinar
L’anno che verrà: prospettive economiche per il 2024

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | January 23, 2024

Quali prospettive per l’economia globale ed europea in questo nuovo anno? La disinflazione proseguirà innescando rapidamente un allentamento monetario, o la solidità dei mercati del lavoro continuerà a mettere pressioni sui salari spingendo le banche centrali a mantenere i tassi elevati? Il deterioramento delle dinamiche di crescita in corso anticipa una recessione più marcata o si tratta solamente di un soft landing?

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Webinar
Perspectivas para España y Europa: los consumidores serán clave

with Angel Talavera and Debora Bourdon | Online | November 20, 2023

Con la economía de la zona euro al borde de la recesión, las perspectivas a corto plazo siguen siendo negativas. Para 2024 esperamos una cierta recuperación en Europa de la mano de unos consumidores que verán una mejora en su renta disponible debido a la caída de la inflación. Aunque los riesgos en el sector energético han disminuido en gran medida, las tensiones geopolíticas y el impacto de las subidas de tipos seguirán presentando riesgos para el crecimiento. En España, esperamos un crecimiento algo más flojo que este año a medida que los vientos de cola en la recuperación del sector servicios se agotan, pero seguiremos creciendo por encima de la media de la zona euro.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Economy stalls as hard landing inexorably grinds nearer

with Tony Stillo and Callee Davis | Online | October 5, 2023

Canada's economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Growth stalled in two of the last three quarters and momentum entering Q3 was weak. Key imbalances – highly indebted households and overvalued house prices – can't evade the coming full impact of the Bank of Canada's aggressive hike in the policy rate. An imminent consumer pullback, combined with a deepening housing correction, will finally push the economy into recession.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – July 2023

with Tony Stillo, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | August 10, 2023

The Canadian economy outperformed expectations in early 2023, but it was likely just a temporary reprieve from recession. In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow economists, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume discuss the economy’s recent resilience and the forces that make a moderate downturn unavoidable.

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Webinar
US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | July 11, 2023

The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit conditions tighten further. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how bad the damage will be.

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Webinar
Outlook for US business spending through recession and recovery

with Mark Killion and Ryan Sweet | Online | June 1, 2023

US companies face headwinds from higher capital costs and looming recession. Which industries will retain or restrain their spending during the economic slowdown and subsequent recovery? How will business spending on technology products and related machinery be impacted?

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Webinar
EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
Financial stresses add to the downside risks to world growth

with Ben May and Innes McFee | Online | March 20, 2023

We’ve recently revised up our world GDP growth forecast for 2023 modestly and continue to see only modest recessions at worst in key advanced economies. The recent failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have nonetheless highlighted the risk of a more substantive and disorderly further tightening in financial conditions which could in turn have adverse spillovers to the real economy. In this webinar, we set out why we have kept our baseline forecasts unchanged in response to these recent events and set out what we would need to see from here to trigger a substantive downward revision to our baseline forecasts.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – March 2023

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | March 9, 2023

Canada’s housing market is in the midst of an historic correction. Home prices are already down about 15% from early 2022 highs and home sales have plummeted by more than 40%. With mortgage rates now peaking, the question on everyone’s mind is – How much longer will the housing downturn continue? In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the outlook for Canada’s housing market and why they believe the correction in housing hasn’t yet run its full course.

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Webinar
Eurozone dodges winter bullet but outlook will remain challenging

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | February 14, 2023

European sentiment is improving quickly, as a warm winter and a remarkable effort in reducing gas consumption has erased the prospects of energy rationing during the winter. The improved prospects for the industrial sector means the euro area economy may avoid a recession, but beyond the outlook for energy, prospects will continue to be dominated by two other factors: the evolution of inflation and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle carried out by the ECB.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar
Key Themes for Canada in 2023: A year in recession

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | January 26, 2023

Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023. Prevailing household debt and housing imbalances will mix with pandemic and geopolitical forces to make Canada's recession deeper than most advanced economies. We expect GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2023, well-below consensus expectations, with six key themes featuring prominently.

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Webinar
European travel – the rising importance of long-haul travel – ETC Q4 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | January 25, 2023

The strong travel rebound in 2022 is expected to continue into 2023, albeit at a slower pace and with a shift in the importance of source markets. Advanced economy recession will dent recovery, but pent-up demand remains evident for major markets and there remains some continuing normalisation of travel patterns. Growth in transatlantic travel has been a recent area of success for European destinations, while we can now look forward to returning visitors from Asia Pacific with some more clarity.

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