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Webinar
Africa’s ability to adapt in a changing landscape

with Jacques Nel and Greg Struyweg | Online | May 31, 2022

Relations between Russia and the West have changed irreversibly. This will have a lasting impact on the global economy. The outlook for a number of commodities has changed fundamentally. Economic structure may be destiny: Algeria received an unexpected reprieve at a moment that otherwise looked threatening, whereas the picture for energy-importing Tunisia is suddenly bleaker than ever. This webinar looks at which African countries have the economic structures to make the best of the situation. We also look at where institutional factors will play either a positive or negative role in this transition - highly centralised and personalised systems, in which popular anger can be focussed narrowly, are more fragile than democratic and liberal ones in which hardship is experienced as impersonal.

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Webinar
CEE Key Themes 2022 – In for an eventful year

with Tomas Dvorak and Mateusz Urban | Online | February 2, 2022

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic. We expect consumer spending to boost growth in the later part of the year, while industry now appears to have turned the corner and is set for a strong 2022. But the recovery will be uneven, with a variety of downside risks threatening to make it bumpy. In the webinar, we will discuss our outlook for the CEE region, paying particularly close attention to the downside risks: persistently high inflation driven by structural factors, political uncertainty, input shortages and slower supply chain recovery. We will also cover the outlook for monetary and fiscal policies in the CEE, focusing on the hawkish turn of the region’s central banks and the disbursement of the NGEU funds.

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Webinar
Russia and Ukraine: Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame

with Tatiana Orlova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | January 26, 2022

Russian and Ukrainian markets have probably overreacted to the apparent failure of the Geneva talks between the US and Russia. Geopolitical risks in the region remain elevated. But given the high potential cost of a military action, we believe Russia is more interested in continuing negotiations with the US and Nato than in attacking Ukraine.

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