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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: Divergent policies & the cost of uncoordinated action

with David Winter, Sean Metcalfe and Felicity Hannon | Online | April 20, 2023

This quarter our new scenario – Divergent Net Zero – demonstrates the cost of uncoordinated policy action. Divergence in mitigation policy across sectors results in a higher burden on consumers relative to industry. In this webinar we present detailed results at the macro and industry level, leveraging our new Industry Climate Service, which quantifies the impacts of climate scenarios on economic activity and energy consumption at the industry level.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
Our most (and least) preferred macro stories in Latin America this year

with Gabriel Sterne and Marcos Casarin | Online | February 22, 2023

With 2023 set to be a good year for EM bondholders, we focus this webinar on the region where we think bond market can offer the best risk/reward in EM this year: Latin America. LatAm economies are ahead of the tightening curve and should debut the season of rate cuts in EM, but the region is not short of idiosyncratic risks, meaning investors will need to remain selective. Please join our Head of Global EM Gabriel Sterne and our Chief LatAm Economist Marcos Casarin as they go through the most (and least) promising macro stories in LatAm in 2023.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Where now for the MPC?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 6, 2023

With inflation having past its peak and growing evidence that the labour market is beginning to loosen, the BoE is getting close to the end of its hiking cycle. In this webinar we react to the February MPC meeting and discuss how it has impacted on our interest rate forecasts.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Why the US neutral rate will fall below pre-pandemic lows

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | October 20, 2022

With US policy rates rising until inflation is clearly under control, we ask what will happen once inflation normalizes. To help answer this, we estimated the US neutral interest rate and the extent to which it has shifted due to fundamental, structural forces. We find that the neutral rate, having fallen strongly since 1970, will remain low through 2050, and we explain and quantify how nine secular forces are behind this.

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Webinar
Positioning for a shallow recession

with Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor | Online | September 26, 2022

We expect Q4 to be as challenging for markets as 2022 has been thus far. In our autumn webinar, our strategists Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor discuss key global macro themes, including, why we believe yields will soon peak even as real rates have risen, why equities are still poised for a turbulent period, and how credit will outperform other risk assets. As we move into 2023 we see increased opportunities for investors as policy differentiation takes hold and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Gas rationing and stagflation

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | September 7, 2022

In recent months the risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation. We explore these risks, drawing on key insights from our latest global scenarios. Our focus is the potential fall-out from rationing of natural gas in Europe, as well as the implications of persistently elevated inflation expectations and policy rates.

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Webinar
CEE shows limits of monetary policy in taming inflation

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | August 17, 2022

Similar inflation outcomes in CEE demonstrate the limits of monetary policy in combating the current surge in inflation. Slovakia has had a much looser monetary policy but its inflation rate has been similar to other CEE countries with sovereign central banks that have hiked aggressively since 2021. In this webinar, we will discuss the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy tightening in countering supply-driven, imported inflation, and its wider implications for the EM economies.

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Webinar
2021 Australian Census Insights: Lockdowns, Migration, and Household Formation

with Timothy Hibbert and Maree Kilroy | Online | June 30, 2022

The first tranche of data from the Australian 2021 Census is due for release on the 28th of June. Representing the most comprehensive snapshot of the country, the census provides key insights to the economic, social and cultural make-up of Australia. In this webinar we will discuss the topical housing, population, and employment data points, including what they mean for our forecast outlook.

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Webinar
The Impact of Climate Change on Food Prices: Evidence from Southeast Asia

with Tom Rogers and James Lambert | Online | June 23, 2022

Tom Rogers (Head of Macro Consulting, Asia) will discuss our recent work with Food Industry Asia, looking at the impact of climate change on food prices. Tom will look at how Southeast Asia’s climate has changed – and will continue to do so, the econometric evidence about the impact to prices from historic and future warming, the potential cost to food prices from a successful net-zero transition, and what governments can do to protect consumers.

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Webinar
Eurozone outlook: Between recession risks and a booming summer

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | June 22, 2022

The list of risks facing the eurozone economy continues to grow. With inflation being stronger and more entrenched that previously expected, the ECB will be forced to implement a stronger monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to reel from persistent supply chain issues while consumers are suffering a massive hit to real incomes as a result of the inflation surge. Simultaneously, some sectors of the economy continue to outperform, with services, and in particular the outlook for the tourism sector looking bright ahead of the summer season.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – War Disruption

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | June 13, 2022

This webinar examines the key insights from our Q2 Global Scenarios Service. Our latest scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy, including from severe war disruption and the pandemic.

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Webinar
When will inflation fall back and how quickly?

with Ben May and Tim Hunter | Online | May 19, 2022

While the spillovers from the Ukraine war and the impact on supply chains from China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 add to uncertainty over when and where inflation will peak, we continue to expect inflation to fall back sharply towards the end of the year and to undershoot consensus in 2023. In this webinar, we set out why we see inflation falling back so sharply and what are the likely implications for the wider economy and monetary policy.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Inflation and war take the spotlight from Covid

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | May 17, 2022

High inflation, rising interest rates, greater supply chain stress, and the war in Ukraine have quickly replaced Covid as the major concerns facing the US economy. Despite these new challenges, we think the US economy still stands on solid ground. We look for leisure and hospitality to lead the growth charge as the broader US economy recoups all jobs lost to the pandemic by the end of 2022. Tune in to learn what we think lies ahead for the US economy – with a focus on the path ahead for US metros and regions.

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Webinar
Why global demographics are not inflationary

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | March 17, 2022

Will the ageing of societies soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates, as argued prominently by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan? We review their argument and show that it relies on extreme or flawed assumptions that when combined produce a misleading picture. Indeed, our in-depth modelling suggest the opposite: ageing societies will keep inflation and interest rates low for decades.

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Webinar
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Emerging Markets

with Tatiana Orlova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 11, 2022

We focus on elevated levels of risk, a slowing global economy, and via a detailed assessment of the commodities spike on the terms of trade of 44 EMs. We will assess the extent to which asset markets have appropriately factored in the news across EMs.

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