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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Latin America: Travel & Tourism sectors to drive growth across the region

with Jessie Smith and Joan Domene | Online | January 31, 2024

While we forecast economic growth in Latin America to be slightly weaker in 2024 than in 2023, the region will still outperform most advanced economies. Leading this growth will be the travel & tourism sector as consumers in major markets continue to prioritise leisure travel spending. Caribbean and Central American destinations have been among the top performers, benefitting from resurgent US demand and the strength of the US Dollar, including the remarkable return and expansion of cruise activity. In this webinar we will look at economic activity, including key demand drivers and the prospects for more widespread travel recovery as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | December 8, 2023

In this webinar, we present our key themes for Latin America in 2024. Firstly, while annual growth will be slower than in 2023 and even slower than consensus, quarterly data will reveal a more nuanced picture. Secondly, inflation will largely continue to cool faster than markets expect, but there are risks on the horizon. Thirdly, a faster decline of inflation will allow central banks to cut faster than markets expect. And lastly, most countries will slow fiscal consolidation efforts against the backdrop of manageable debt in the near term, but soaring borrowing costs create risks.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Our most (and least) preferred macro stories in Latin America this year

with Gabriel Sterne and Marcos Casarin | Online | February 22, 2023

With 2023 set to be a good year for EM bondholders, we focus this webinar on the region where we think bond market can offer the best risk/reward in EM this year: Latin America. LatAm economies are ahead of the tightening curve and should debut the season of rate cuts in EM, but the region is not short of idiosyncratic risks, meaning investors will need to remain selective. Please join our Head of Global EM Gabriel Sterne and our Chief LatAm Economist Marcos Casarin as they go through the most (and least) promising macro stories in LatAm in 2023.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2023 in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin, Felipe Camargo, Joan Domene and Debora Reyna | Online | November 28, 2022

We expect Latin American economies will be among the first to cut interest rates next year, but we also see the region falling into a shallow recession early in 2023. These, alongside the expectation that fiscal policy will feature more prominently in the debate, are amongst the key themes we believe will shape next year's economic outlook for Latin America.

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Webinar
Post-election scenarios for Brazil

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | October 28, 2022

Brazil's presidential election will be decided on October 29 in a runoff between left-wing former president Lula da Silva (PT) and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PL). We think that a Lula victory could be a best-case scenario for investors, as the charismatic, progressive leader will have to reach consensuses with a conservative congress to pass legislation, reducing the risks of radical policy changes.

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Webinar
LatAm outlook: which central banks will be the first to cut rates in 2023?

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 2, 2022

As inflation reaches its peak, the key question in the region becomes which central bank will be the first to cut rates. Please join our LatAm chief economist Marcos Casarin as he provides an outlook update for the region focusing on the future of monetary policy and the implications for growth and exchange rates.

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Webinar
Recession risks in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin and Gabriel Sterne | Online | June 20, 2022

Latin America was one of the regions most affected by the current wave of imported inflation. And with all five major central banks bound to miss their inflation targets for three years in a row in 2021-23, policy rates have been increased significantly, taking real rates to multi-year highs everywhere. Partly as a result of this abrupt monetary tightening we expect four of the six largest economies in the region to enter technical recessions in the next 12 months.

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Webinar
Global Economic Outlook Webinar: Will high inflation halt the recovery?

with Ben May | Online | June 16, 2022

The global economy has started 2022 on a distinctly soft note and uncertainties over the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, high inflation and activity restrictions continue to cloud the nearer-term outlook. While recession risks have certainly grown over recent months, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery. In this webinar, we provide an overview of our latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

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Webinar
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries

with Gabriel Sterne, Regis Chatellier and Maya Senussi | Online | May 24, 2022

Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.

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Webinar
Latin America’s winners and losers from the war in Ukraine

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | May 20, 2022

As a relevant commodity exporter, Latin America stands to benefit from the generalized increase in prices for raw materials. But the gains will not be uniform across all countries or across all sector of the economy, as the renewed rise in inflation will squeeze consumers' incomes and savings.

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