with Ben May and Adam Slater
February 17, 2022
We outline why the risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime, featuring inflation at 4% or more in the advanced economies for several years, has increased - and what we now think the probability of that risk is. We examine factors such as monetary growth, supply shocks, the broadness of price pressures, labour market developments and inflation expectations. We also look at some cross-country differences and recent changes in central bank behaviour.