with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison
June 27, 2023
In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead?
The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more.
It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.