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Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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Webinar
Why the US neutral rate will fall below pre-pandemic lows

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | October 20, 2022

With US policy rates rising until inflation is clearly under control, we ask what will happen once inflation normalizes. To help answer this, we estimated the US neutral interest rate and the extent to which it has shifted due to fundamental, structural forces. We find that the neutral rate, having fallen strongly since 1970, will remain low through 2050, and we explain and quantify how nine secular forces are behind this.

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Webinar
European travel recovery is underway despite risks – ETC 2022 Q2 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics and Jennifer Iduh, ETC | Online | June 24, 2022

High inflation, including rising travel costs, and staff shortages are the two major risks threatening the ongoing recovery in European travel in 2022. In this session we will provide an overview of current trends and the outlook for European travel recovery this year. Within this, we will share the likely impacts from these headwinds as well as explaining why we believe these effects will be temporary and won’t derail growth, as well as the likelihood of more adverse outcomes.

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Webinar
UK Outlook: Where does the MPC go from here?

with Andrew Goodwin | Online | June 21, 2022

Inflation is on course to top 10% in October when the energy price cap rises again, and consumers face the biggest fall in real incomes for 80 years. Despite strong pushback from the MPC, markets expect the Committee to ultimately prove more concerned about high inflation than potential recession, and price a series of rate hikes through the rest of this year. In this webinar we will look at the main messages from June’s MPC meeting and assess what they mean for the future path of interest rates.

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Webinar
Global Economic Outlook Webinar: Will high inflation halt the recovery?

with Ben May | Online | June 16, 2022

The global economy has started 2022 on a distinctly soft note and uncertainties over the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, high inflation and activity restrictions continue to cloud the nearer-term outlook. While recession risks have certainly grown over recent months, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery. In this webinar, we provide an overview of our latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

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Webinar
Africa’s ability to adapt in a changing landscape

with Jacques Nel and Greg Struyweg | Online | May 31, 2022

Relations between Russia and the West have changed irreversibly. This will have a lasting impact on the global economy. The outlook for a number of commodities has changed fundamentally. Economic structure may be destiny: Algeria received an unexpected reprieve at a moment that otherwise looked threatening, whereas the picture for energy-importing Tunisia is suddenly bleaker than ever. This webinar looks at which African countries have the economic structures to make the best of the situation. We also look at where institutional factors will play either a positive or negative role in this transition - highly centralised and personalised systems, in which popular anger can be focussed narrowly, are more fragile than democratic and liberal ones in which hardship is experienced as impersonal.

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