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Webinar
Key Themes for Canada in 2023: A year in recession

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | January 26, 2023

Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023. Prevailing household debt and housing imbalances will mix with pandemic and geopolitical forces to make Canada's recession deeper than most advanced economies. We expect GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2023, well-below consensus expectations, with six key themes featuring prominently.

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Webinar
Canada Outlook: Soft landing still most likely but recession risks are rising

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | July 20, 2022

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to slow sharply in the latter portion of 2022 and in 2023 – likely to stall speed – as momentum from the reopening of the economy after Omicron fades and compounding threats weigh on growth. We're increasingly concerned that a conjunction of headwinds, led by an overly aggressive Bank of Canada tightening and a highly-indebted household sector, could push the economy into recession. While we still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for Canada, we reckon the odds of a recession over the next twelve months have risen to about 40%.

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