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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Reeling European energy markets raise risks of industrial recession

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | September 14, 2022

Global industrial output is expected to slow in 2023 against a backdrop of growing economic headwinds and a rotation in spending away from spending on goods and towards services. An inventory build-up – albeit from a low level – poses a further risk to industrial production if demand falls more than expected, and the energy squeeze in Europe will put pressure on industrial output there. Join Abby Samp and Max Anderson as they discuss the latest update to Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Forecast.

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