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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Africa in 2023

with Callee Davis and Jacques Nel | Online | November 15, 2022

The global economy is on the cusp of a recession. A number of African economies have historically been able to shrug off an unfavourable external backdrop, but a marked tightening in global financial conditions will make this time more challenging. In this session we will give our view on how 2023 will unfold on the continent and what we should, and shouldn’t, expect.

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Webinar
What do we want? Sovereign crisis resolution. When do we want it? Now!

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | September 19, 2022

The biggest wave of sovereign defaults since the 1980s is upon us. Global institutional challenges – in particular the IMFs’ delicate relations with China – may prove to be an obstacle to efficient crisis resolution. We unpick the issues, focusing on our detailed analysis of debt composition in the most stressed economies.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Gas rationing and stagflation

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | September 7, 2022

In recent months the risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation. We explore these risks, drawing on key insights from our latest global scenarios. Our focus is the potential fall-out from rationing of natural gas in Europe, as well as the implications of persistently elevated inflation expectations and policy rates.

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Webinar
世界経済の展望：FED大幅利上げとスタグフレーション・リスク

Online | July 28, 2022

ウェビナーでは、6月に米国FEDが景気後退も辞さない覚悟でインフレを抑制する姿勢を示したことを受けての世界経済の展望とリスクをご説明します。Oxford Economics見通しの特徴は、比較的早いインフレ率の戻りと利上げ停止・利下げ展開を展望し、米国のリセッション入りもかろうじて回避することを見込む点です。その成否の鍵を握る長期金利や資産価格の動き、マクロ的なインフレ決定メカニズムの構造変化の有無などについての分析をご紹介します。

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Webinar
Global scenarios – War Disruption

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | June 13, 2022

This webinar examines the key insights from our Q2 Global Scenarios Service. Our latest scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy, including from severe war disruption and the pandemic.

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Webinar
Which world cities will see the strongest employment growth to 2026, and why?

with Richard Holt and Anthony Light | Online | April 19, 2022

Following the recent publication of our latest forecasts for the world’s leading cities, and against a background of huge short-term uncertainty for the global economy, this webinar will stand back, and offer a medium-term (to 2026) view of job prospects in major cities. Have the pandemic, the inflation surge and supply shortages, and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine, changed everything? Or will cities in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific gradually return to their pre-pandemic trajectories? Which cities will be the winners, and which are the ones that are most likely to struggle?

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Webinar
世界経済の展望：ウクライナ侵攻と金融政策正常化

Online | April 19, 2022

今次日本語ウェビナーでは、ロシアによるウクライナ侵攻が世界経済へ及ぼす影響について、モデルのシミュレーションなどを用いて定量的に説明します。また、戦争による資源価格の高騰は、米国FEDを一段とタカ派化させ、金融市場ではスタグフレーションへの懸念が高まっています。弊社は現時点ではアグレッシブな利上げ後の利下げ転換でsoft landingするとの見方ですが、同時にFEDが過去に例のない性質と大きさの不確実性に直面していることも示したいと思います。

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Webinar
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Emerging Markets

with Tatiana Orlova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 11, 2022

We focus on elevated levels of risk, a slowing global economy, and via a detailed assessment of the commodities spike on the terms of trade of 44 EMs. We will assess the extent to which asset markets have appropriately factored in the news across EMs.

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Webinar
Rising risk of a higher inflation ‘regime’

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 17, 2022

We outline why the risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime, featuring inflation at 4% or more in the advanced economies for several years, has increased - and what we now think the probability of that risk is. We examine factors such as monetary growth, supply shocks, the broadness of price pressures, labour market developments and inflation expectations. We also look at some cross-country differences and recent changes in central bank behaviour.

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Webinar
Global construction sector continuing to rebound in 2022

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 8, 2022

Globally, the value of Construction Work Done is continuing to rebound following the Covid disruption, supported by government stimulus which is being targeted in different ways across different countries. The outbreak of the omicron variant and the Evergrande default, however, weigh over the near-term outlook. In this webinar we present our key findings of the distribution and outlook of construction activity across sectors and countries. We will also discuss our plans for the service, including further developments that will be launched over the coming year.

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