Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Guerre tarifaire: Les économies américaine et européenne pourront-elles échapper à la récession?

with Leo Barincou and Pierre Delage | Online | June 19, 2025

La hausse historique des droits de douane décidée par l’administration américaine en avril compromet la stabilité de l’économie mondiale. L’économie des Etats-Unis est la plus vulnérable à ce choc économique auto-infligé, mais l’Europe et la Chine voient également leurs perspectives s’assombrir. Les économies américaine et européenne pourront-elles échapper à la récession?

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Webinar
Trumps Handelskrieg: Die Risiken überwiegen für Europa

with Oli Rakau | Online | June 12, 2025

Die Außenhandelspolitik der neuen US-Regierung hält die Welt in Atem. Hohe Zölle und enorme Unsicherheit bremsen die globale Konjunktur, und sind ein herber Dämpfer für Europas Exportwirtschaft. Aber die neuen geopolitischen Zwänge und die fiskalische Antworten darauf bieten auch Chancen.

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Webinar
Mapping China’s tariff pain to relative gains for other emerging economies.

with Louise Loo and Gabriel Sterne | Online | May 19, 2025

Trade wars are costly for everyone, but there are clear relative losers and winners. Tariffs will cripple US-China trade, and we expect China's goods trade surplus to shrink but only to a still substantial 3.2% of GDP this year and remain significant in the medium term owing to trade diversification, shifts up the export value chain, and the reduced import intensity of Chinese demand. Ironically, other than China, the relative winners list includes the very countries Trump targeted most heavily in his April 2 tariff regime: Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and the Philippines

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Webinar
UK Macroeconomic Outlook

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | April 7, 2025

The extent of the H2 2024 slowdown appears to have been exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data, but 2025 still promises to be a challenging year. In this webinar we’ll analyse the UK outlook in light of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and March’s MPC meeting.

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Webinar
Tariffe e tensioni geopolitiche, quale impatto per l’Europa?

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | March 26, 2025

Mentre il mondo si scontra con un’amministrazione Trump molto interventista, l’economia dell’Eurozona rimane sostanzialmente bloccata, in attesa di sviluppi sul fronte dazi e alle prese con la questione Ucraina e le relative implicazioni a livello di spesa per la Difesa.

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Webinar
Global outlook: Ignore the doomsayers, but don’t expect 2025 fireworks either

with Ben May | Online | September 9, 2024

In this webinar we look at global growth prospects for 2025. We believe that recent jitters about US growth prospects are overdone, while US GDP growth will slow a bit, this will not lead to substantive deceleration in global growth. In fact, our baseline forecast is for the world economy to expand by 2.7% for the third year running next year.

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Webinar
Eurozone: A steady but unspectacular recovery

with Ricardo Amaro | Online | June 17, 2024

Latest data reinforced signs that the eurozone's economic recovery is continuing to progress following stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.3% q/q in Q1. But growth remains uneven country and sector-wide, leaving a further pickup in momentum unlikely in the near-term. We continue to expect the recovery will gather pace next year, with GDP growth rising to 1.8% after 0.8% in 2024. In this webinar, we will recap our outlook for the eurozone economy and ECB policy.

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Webinar
Post-correction real estate opportunities on the horizon?

with Abigail Rosenbaum | Online | April 17, 2024

Solid US GDP growth and lower inflation in 2024 will lead the Fed to begin cutting rates mid-year. Rate cuts should stabilize investor confidence and bring the commercial real estate (CRE) pricing correction to an end this year. Once a recovery is underway in 2025, opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar, using our Relative Return Index (RRI), we highlight risk-adjusted investment opportunities for Global CRE in 2024 and beyond.

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Webinar
China’s fiscal policy: shifting from local to central

with Louise Loo and Betty Wang | Online | March 22, 2024

1/ Is the official budget enough to help achieve the implied optimistic GDP growth in 2024? 2/ Does the issuance of special treasury bonds suggest a shift of stimulus focus from local governments to the central government? 3/ What could be the potential sectors receiving fiscal support?

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Webinar
The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 5, 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Are African countries’ fiscal efforts strong enough to restore debt sustainability?

with Irmgard Erasmus and Pieter Scribante | Online | August 29, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison | Online | June 27, 2023

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead? The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more. It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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