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Webinar
Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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Webinar
Canada Outlook: Soft landing still most likely but recession risks are rising

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | July 20, 2022

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to slow sharply in the latter portion of 2022 and in 2023 – likely to stall speed – as momentum from the reopening of the economy after Omicron fades and compounding threats weigh on growth. We're increasingly concerned that a conjunction of headwinds, led by an overly aggressive Bank of Canada tightening and a highly-indebted household sector, could push the economy into recession. While we still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for Canada, we reckon the odds of a recession over the next twelve months have risen to about 40%.

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Webinar
US Economic Outlook: Pathway to a softish landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | July 12, 2022

Recession headwinds have increased as the Fed is more aggressively front-loading rate hikes due to very sticky and elevated inflation. Despite the possibility of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there still remains a pathway, albeit narrowing, toward a softish landing. The easing of labor and product supply constraints and a still sizeable pool of consumer savings should underpin the expansion.

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Webinar
Fed still has a good chance of navigating a soft landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | June 9, 2022

The Federal Reserve fell behind the inflation curve and now is committed to aggressively front-loading policy tightening, which is helping to send recession odds higher. We will discuss when they are likely to scale back on the tightening and the unique dynamics in this expansion that give the Federal Reserve a fighting chance to achieve a soft landing.

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