Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Eurozone Key themes 2024 – Fragile recovery will gain impulse

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | December 7, 2023

After grinding to a halt in 2023, we expect the cogs of the eurozone economy to start slowly turning again in 2024, gaining more momentum as the year goes on. Our key call is for faster disinflation, which together with a weak growth outlook will prompt the ECB to normalise policy earlier and more forcefully than what the markets are expecting. This should in turn help to usher in stronger consumption growth. But there are potential headwinds aplenty – looming fiscal consolidations, possible supply shocks or hysteresis effects holding activity back.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: shifting from energy risks to financial risks

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | May 10, 2023

The euro area defied expectations of a winter downturn, and economic activity has proven remarkably resilient. But the economic outlook is now facing increasing risks from the impact of the sharp tightening in credit conditions. We’ll explore the outlook for the eurozone and have an in-depth look at the ways in which higher interest rates will impact the European economy.

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済:軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
L’Italia tra elezioni, crisi energetica e inflazione

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | September 21, 2022

Con la caduta del Governo Draghi si è aperta una fase di incertezza per l’economia italiana, che deve affrontare un periodo di campagna elettorale mentre la crisi legata al caro energia e all’inflazione inizia ad essere ben visibile per imprese e famiglie. Con una recessione in Italia e nell’Eurozona che prevediamo essere ormai alle porte, la coalizione che uscirà vincitrice dalle urne il 25 Settembre dovrà quindi affrontare da subito delle problematiche importanti, che si vanno a sommare agli impegni legati al PNRR e alle turbolenze da parte dei mercati. Nel corso del nostro webinar cercheremo di analizzare tutte queste tematiche con un approfondimento sui potenziali scenari post voto.

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia: situazione attuale e fattori di rischio

with Nicola Nobile and Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | June 23, 2022

Una situazione geopolitica ancora instabile, i rischi di una recessione sempre più concreti e il cambio di passo della BCE per quanto riguarda i tassi e gli acquisti di titoli di stato aggiungono fattori di rischio per un’economia che sta dando segni di rallentamento e che si deve confrontare con un’inflazione che non accenna a calmarsi.

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Webinar
Eurozone outlook: Between recession risks and a booming summer

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | June 22, 2022

The list of risks facing the eurozone economy continues to grow. With inflation being stronger and more entrenched that previously expected, the ECB will be forced to implement a stronger monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to reel from persistent supply chain issues while consumers are suffering a massive hit to real incomes as a result of the inflation surge. Simultaneously, some sectors of the economy continue to outperform, with services, and in particular the outlook for the tourism sector looking bright ahead of the summer season.

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Webinar
Eurozone: As Covid concerns fade away, war in Ukraine and inflation fears take over

with Angel Talavera and Oliver Rakau | Online | March 2, 2022

As Covid fears dissipate, geopolitical tensions and inflation risks now dominate the outlook. Russian invasion of Ukraine means a longer period of high energy prices and increased volatility, which will hit the European economy and complicate things even further for the ECB as it attempts to start its process of policy normalisation.

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