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Webinar
Tariffe e tensioni geopolitiche, quale impatto per l’Europa?

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | March 26, 2025

Mentre il mondo si scontra con un’amministrazione Trump molto interventista, l’economia dell’Eurozona rimane sostanzialmente bloccata, in attesa di sviluppi sul fronte dazi e alle prese con la questione Ucraina e le relative implicazioni a livello di spesa per la Difesa.

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Webinar
Eurozone: tariff threat weighs on the outlook

with Mateusz Urban | Online | March 5, 2025

The eurozone economy remains stuck in a low gear and we have recently cut our growth forecasts as a result of our expectation of US tariffs on European imports being imposed over the coming months. While we still think the Eurozone economy is more likely to continue to grow at weak pace rather than fall into recession, the list of risk factors – ranging from more cautious households and firms to a full-blown trade war – remains long. In this webinar, we will discuss both the recent changes to our baseline and the risks around it, as well as their consequences for the fiscal and monetary policy outlook.

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Event
Global Economic Outlook Conference: Germany

In-Person | November 13, 2024

Event Global Economic Outlook Conference: Germany 13th November 2024 – 9.00am JW Marriot, Frankfurt Expect to learn about the outlook for the global economy in 2025, with US growth once leading the pack amid looser fiscal policy. The outlook for Europe is one of cautious optimism, in which a recovery in real incomes and lower...

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Webinar
Treading carefully on the path to recovery

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 24, 2024

The recovery continues but shows signs of cracking, and some measures of inflation keep dragging their feet. Shaky confidence casts doubt on growth shifting up a gear, whilst the European Central Bank remains reluctant to signal a much looser monetary policy. Will growth lose steam amidst an industrial sector still in the doldrums? Will the ECB wreck the ship in its effort to tame inflation? The eurozone economy had a decent first half of the year, but the pace of the recovery going forward remains highly uncertain.

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Webinar
Già finito il sogno di un’eurozona a trazione italiana?

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | July 4, 2024

Dopo tre anni di crescita superiore rispetto all’eurozona, e nonostante un avvio di 2024 solido, l’economia italiana sembra destinata a rallentare rispetto ai partner europei, complici un settore manifatturiero che fatica a ripartire e il minor supporto fiscale al settore edile.

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Webinar
Eurozone: A steady but unspectacular recovery

with Ricardo Amaro | Online | June 17, 2024

Latest data reinforced signs that the eurozone's economic recovery is continuing to progress following stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.3% q/q in Q1. But growth remains uneven country and sector-wide, leaving a further pickup in momentum unlikely in the near-term. We continue to expect the recovery will gather pace next year, with GDP growth rising to 1.8% after 0.8% in 2024. In this webinar, we will recap our outlook for the eurozone economy and ECB policy.

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Webinar
Eurozone: On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Eurozone Key themes 2024 – Fragile recovery will gain impulse

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | December 7, 2023

After grinding to a halt in 2023, we expect the cogs of the eurozone economy to start slowly turning again in 2024, gaining more momentum as the year goes on. Our key call is for faster disinflation, which together with a weak growth outlook will prompt the ECB to normalise policy earlier and more forcefully than what the markets are expecting. This should in turn help to usher in stronger consumption growth. But there are potential headwinds aplenty – looming fiscal consolidations, possible supply shocks or hysteresis effects holding activity back.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: shifting from energy risks to financial risks

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | May 10, 2023

The euro area defied expectations of a winter downturn, and economic activity has proven remarkably resilient. But the economic outlook is now facing increasing risks from the impact of the sharp tightening in credit conditions. We’ll explore the outlook for the eurozone and have an in-depth look at the ways in which higher interest rates will impact the European economy.

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
L’Italia tra elezioni, crisi energetica e inflazione

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | September 21, 2022

Con la caduta del Governo Draghi si è aperta una fase di incertezza per l’economia italiana, che deve affrontare un periodo di campagna elettorale mentre la crisi legata al caro energia e all’inflazione inizia ad essere ben visibile per imprese e famiglie. Con una recessione in Italia e nell’Eurozona che prevediamo essere ormai alle porte, la coalizione che uscirà vincitrice dalle urne il 25 Settembre dovrà quindi affrontare da subito delle problematiche importanti, che si vanno a sommare agli impegni legati al PNRR e alle turbolenze da parte dei mercati. Nel corso del nostro webinar cercheremo di analizzare tutte queste tematiche con un approfondimento sui potenziali scenari post voto.

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