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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Gas crisis threatens industries in Europe

with Sean Metcalfe and Nico Palesch | Online | November 8, 2022

Skyrocketing gas prices in Europe are expected to weigh on economic activity across the region this winter. Join Sean Metcalfe and Nico Palesch as they explore European vulnerabilities from a sectoral perspective using a series of industry-level energy indicators that have recently been added to the Global Industry Service.

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Webinar
European travel recovery despite looming recession – ETC 2022 Q3 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 20, 2022

Strong rebound in travel continued during 2022 summer months across European destinations, despite economic slowdown. The region now sits on the brink of recession and we will explore how much this is expected to affect travel prospects for the remainder of the year, and into 2023, as well as the impact of currency shifts and potential for recovery in demand from some long-haul markets which are likely to re-open.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
Natural gas prices hit record high – what next?

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | September 21, 2022

Gas prices have hit new records in recent weeks as supply of Russian gas to Europe has been curtailed. We examine our baseline assumptions underpinning our price forecast and the implications for other commodity prices against the backdrop of an already weak macroeconomic environment.

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Webinar
Reeling European energy markets raise risks of industrial recession

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | September 14, 2022

Global industrial output is expected to slow in 2023 against a backdrop of growing economic headwinds and a rotation in spending away from spending on goods and towards services. An inventory build-up – albeit from a low level – poses a further risk to industrial production if demand falls more than expected, and the energy squeeze in Europe will put pressure on industrial output there. Join Abby Samp and Max Anderson as they discuss the latest update to Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Forecast.

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Webinar
Russian gas exports: the past, the present and the future

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Tatiana Orlova | Online | September 8, 2022

Gazprom, which has drastically reduced gas flow via Nord Stream 1, is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. But Russia is stuck with a pipeline system built to supply Europe. Notwithstanding the present gas war, it's in Russia's interest to continue providing Europe with gas while it builds new pipelines to Asia. Therefore, we see the scope of an easing of the gas crisis in the coming months.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Gas rationing and stagflation

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | September 7, 2022

In recent months the risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation. We explore these risks, drawing on key insights from our latest global scenarios. Our focus is the potential fall-out from rationing of natural gas in Europe, as well as the implications of persistently elevated inflation expectations and policy rates.

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Webinar
Economic headwinds hinder near-term air travel recovery

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics and Andrew Matters - Economic Advisor to IATA | Online | September 1, 2022

Rebound in air travel demand has faltered somewhat mid-year as economic headwinds are hindering growth. Higher costs and squeezed incomes are having some initial, but modest, impact, while labour shortages have become a concern. We will explore these issues and our revised outlook with our partners at IATA.

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Webinar
CEE shows limits of monetary policy in taming inflation

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | August 17, 2022

Similar inflation outcomes in CEE demonstrate the limits of monetary policy in combating the current surge in inflation. Slovakia has had a much looser monetary policy but its inflation rate has been similar to other CEE countries with sovereign central banks that have hiked aggressively since 2021. In this webinar, we will discuss the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy tightening in countering supply-driven, imported inflation, and its wider implications for the EM economies.

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Webinar
European travel recovery is underway despite risks – ETC 2022 Q2 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics and Jennifer Iduh, ETC | Online | June 24, 2022

High inflation, including rising travel costs, and staff shortages are the two major risks threatening the ongoing recovery in European travel in 2022. In this session we will provide an overview of current trends and the outlook for European travel recovery this year. Within this, we will share the likely impacts from these headwinds as well as explaining why we believe these effects will be temporary and won’t derail growth, as well as the likelihood of more adverse outcomes.

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Webinar
Eurozone outlook: Between recession risks and a booming summer

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | June 22, 2022

The list of risks facing the eurozone economy continues to grow. With inflation being stronger and more entrenched that previously expected, the ECB will be forced to implement a stronger monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to reel from persistent supply chain issues while consumers are suffering a massive hit to real incomes as a result of the inflation surge. Simultaneously, some sectors of the economy continue to outperform, with services, and in particular the outlook for the tourism sector looking bright ahead of the summer season.

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Webinar
Is the air travel recovery headed for turbulence?

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Stephen Rooney, Tourism Economics and Andrew Matters - Economic Advisor to IATA | Online | May 18, 2022

Air travel demand accelerated in early 2022 prompting expectations of a rapid acceleration into the northern hemisphere summer and suggesting that fears of a sharp Omicron-related fall were unfounded. However, concerns in many countries have now shifted towards the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which we will explore, along with our forecast partners at IATA, in this webinar. We will look at the path for recovery in the rest of the year and beyond as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
War in Ukraine presents new headwinds for the Nordics

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | April 29, 2022

In this webinar, we will discuss the channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacts the Nordic economies. Specifically, its impact on energy prices and inflation, Nordic dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels, and trade and industry links.

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Webinar
European travel recovery deferred but not derailed – ETC 2022 Q1 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Thomas Emanuel, STR and Jennifer Iduh, ETC | Online | April 21, 2022

2022 was set to be a strong year for the tourism sector in recovery from the pandemic but now faces further challenges due to the war and humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. Recent trends will be discussed in this webinar, as well as the outlook and risks in Tourism Economics latest projections and the new ETC quarterly report, including a more detailed look at hotel sector trends in STR data.

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Webinar
Filling the void: Africa’s role in European energy security

with Callee Davis and Zaynab Mohamed | Online | March 29, 2022

As Western Europe accelerates a structural transition away from Russian energy dependence, Africa will play a salient role in filling this void. In this webinar we explore how a more pressing shift towards renewable energy and a reduction on Russian hydrocarbon dependence will increase demand for African renewable and non-renewable resources. We also look at where political, institutional and governance risks might hinder this transition.

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Webinar
The economic implications of Russia’s full-scale invasion

with Tatiana Orlova and Innes McFee | Online | February 25, 2022

In this webinar, we will assess the implications of the Russian invasion, including via our revised model-based forecast. We will explore the potential impact of higher European gas, oil and food prices over the medium term, as well as more financial market disruption and greater global sanctions on Russia. From an economic perspective, the biggest loser (other than Ukraine) looks set to be Russia. Submit your questions to our economists via the chat panel during an extended Q&A at the end of the session.

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Webinar
CEE Key Themes 2022 – In for an eventful year

with Tomas Dvorak and Mateusz Urban | Online | February 2, 2022

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic. We expect consumer spending to boost growth in the later part of the year, while industry now appears to have turned the corner and is set for a strong 2022. But the recovery will be uneven, with a variety of downside risks threatening to make it bumpy. In the webinar, we will discuss our outlook for the CEE region, paying particularly close attention to the downside risks: persistently high inflation driven by structural factors, political uncertainty, input shortages and slower supply chain recovery. We will also cover the outlook for monetary and fiscal policies in the CEE, focusing on the hawkish turn of the region’s central banks and the disbursement of the NGEU funds.

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