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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
The outlook for cities as the world addresses climate change

with Anthony Light and Mark Britton | Online | April 26, 2023

The impact of policies to address climate change will have an uneven impact on local economies, due to their unique industrial composition and vulnerability to climate events. In this webinar, we will answer the following questions: how big an impact will policies to tackle climate affect economic growth in cities? Which cities will be most affected, and will there be winners as well as losers? What impact will climate transition policies have on subnational growth disparities?

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook – focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | April 20, 2023

It has now been over a year since Russia invaded Ukraine and war continues with no clear or immediate end in sight - impacting on a wide range of economic activities and countries. In this session we will explore the impact of the ongoing conflict, and related policies on travel and especially for European destinations and implications for recovery. Other travel trends and performance will also be discussed.

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Webinar
The short-term outlook for the world’s largest cities

with Aedan McCotter, Anthony Light, Dmitriy Gruzinov and Scott McEwan | Online | April 13, 2023

The economic outlook for 2023 is a little brighter than it was at the start of the year, although recent developments in the banking sector add to downside risks. And labour markets in many major cities are set for a tough year with jobs growth slowing. Following the publication of our latest city forecasts, in this webinar we will discuss the short term employment outlook for major cities in North America, Europe and Asia.

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Webinar
Global Construction Futures – global construction up US$4.2 trillion by 2037

with Graham Robinson, Jeremy Leonard, James (Aon), Tariq (Aon) and Bob (Aon) | Online | March 16, 2023

As China pivots from its Zero Covid policy and with growth in the US and most European markets expected to be negative or flatlining this year – what are the medium- and longer-term futures for the global construction industry? We expect growth engines to drive global construction up US$4.1 trillion by 2037. Global Construction Futures is the next in a series of global forecasts for construction to be published by Oxford Economics with the support of the global Construction and Infrastructure leadership team at Aon. Global Construction Futures will be launched on 16 March 2023 to a global construction industry audience. Oxford Economics will present the key highlights from the forecasts for construction and a panel of industry leaders will give their perspectives on the global construction market.

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Webinar
Eurozone dodges winter bullet but outlook will remain challenging

with Angel Talavera and Tomas Dvorak | Online | February 14, 2023

European sentiment is improving quickly, as a warm winter and a remarkable effort in reducing gas consumption has erased the prospects of energy rationing during the winter. The improved prospects for the industrial sector means the euro area economy may avoid a recession, but beyond the outlook for energy, prospects will continue to be dominated by two other factors: the evolution of inflation and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle carried out by the ECB.

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Webinar
European travel – the rising importance of long-haul travel – ETC Q4 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | January 25, 2023

The strong travel rebound in 2022 is expected to continue into 2023, albeit at a slower pace and with a shift in the importance of source markets. Advanced economy recession will dent recovery, but pent-up demand remains evident for major markets and there remains some continuing normalisation of travel patterns. Growth in transatlantic travel has been a recent area of success for European destinations, while we can now look forward to returning visitors from Asia Pacific with some more clarity.

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Webinar
Key Themes for Cities in 2023: Asia Pacific, Europe, North America

with Aedan McCotter and Richard Holt | Online | January 12, 2023

As the world economy faces economic slowdown, with many advanced nations experiencing recession, one key theme for cities in 2023 is bound to be the existence of safe havens: cities whose growth will be less damaged than most, or which may prove to be more resilient than their national economies. Possible factors include their industrial structures, the resilience of their consumer sectors and of their housing markets, and likely trends in their visitor economies. In this webinar we will explore these issues, and identify from a city perspective what to look out for as 2023 unfolds.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Gas crisis threatens industries in Europe

with Sean Metcalfe and Nico Palesch | Online | November 8, 2022

Skyrocketing gas prices in Europe are expected to weigh on economic activity across the region this winter. Join Sean Metcalfe and Nico Palesch as they explore European vulnerabilities from a sectoral perspective using a series of industry-level energy indicators that have recently been added to the Global Industry Service.

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Webinar
European travel recovery despite looming recession – ETC 2022 Q3 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 20, 2022

Strong rebound in travel continued during 2022 summer months across European destinations, despite economic slowdown. The region now sits on the brink of recession and we will explore how much this is expected to affect travel prospects for the remainder of the year, and into 2023, as well as the impact of currency shifts and potential for recovery in demand from some long-haul markets which are likely to re-open.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
Natural gas prices hit record high – what next?

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | September 21, 2022

Gas prices have hit new records in recent weeks as supply of Russian gas to Europe has been curtailed. We examine our baseline assumptions underpinning our price forecast and the implications for other commodity prices against the backdrop of an already weak macroeconomic environment.

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Webinar
Reeling European energy markets raise risks of industrial recession

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | September 14, 2022

Global industrial output is expected to slow in 2023 against a backdrop of growing economic headwinds and a rotation in spending away from spending on goods and towards services. An inventory build-up – albeit from a low level – poses a further risk to industrial production if demand falls more than expected, and the energy squeeze in Europe will put pressure on industrial output there. Join Abby Samp and Max Anderson as they discuss the latest update to Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Forecast.

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Webinar
Russian gas exports: the past, the present and the future

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Tatiana Orlova | Online | September 8, 2022

Gazprom, which has drastically reduced gas flow via Nord Stream 1, is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. But Russia is stuck with a pipeline system built to supply Europe. Notwithstanding the present gas war, it's in Russia's interest to continue providing Europe with gas while it builds new pipelines to Asia. Therefore, we see the scope of an easing of the gas crisis in the coming months.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Gas rationing and stagflation

with Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | September 7, 2022

In recent months the risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation. We explore these risks, drawing on key insights from our latest global scenarios. Our focus is the potential fall-out from rationing of natural gas in Europe, as well as the implications of persistently elevated inflation expectations and policy rates.

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