Events and Webinars

Webinar

Key EM themes for 2025

with Evghenia Sleptsova, Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | December 4, 2024

We present our views on the impact on EMs of the Trump presidency, key trends and outlook for sovereign risk, monetary policy outlook and the implications of a prolonged period of hawkishness, and top macro and asset calls for 2025

Webinar

Initial market reactions to US election results

with Gabriel Sterne and Javier Corominas | Online | November 6, 2024

Webinar

Our latest Emerging Market macro forecasts and asset views

with Gabriel Sterne and Callee Davis | Online | October 2, 2024

We examine how Emerging Markets will react to slowing global demand, falling global interest rates and consider US political risks.

Webinar

Rate cuts to facilitate the next leg higher for risk assets

with Daniel von Ahlen | Online | July 4, 2024

In this webinar, we provide our cross-asset outlook for the rest of this year. We discuss in detail the likely implications for equities, bonds, credit, the dollar and EM fixed income as the Fed closes in on the first rate cut.

Webinar

Mid-year high convictions in Emerging Markets Assets

with Felipe Camargo, Lucila Bonilla and Sergi Lanau | Online | June 5, 2024

The global context is that central banks continue to focus almost entirely on inflation and tight policy will become a downside risk for global and EM activity. We are below consensus on EM growth in 2024. We see impetus running out of steam in most EM regions, and we are generally optimistic on EM disinflation, more so in LatAm than CEE. We remain neutral on EM FX. Fed-related undershoots are balanced by risks of drawdowns driven by spells of wider rate differentials. We see opportunities in local currency debt in LatAm after April’s EM-wide sell-off; and we still find long-term valuation metrics compelling. Mexican and Turkish rates appear attractive. Tight valuations weight on sovereign credit but we see good opportunities, particularly in Colombia and Angola.

Webinar

Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

Webinar

The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 5, 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

Webinar

Global Cities: Identifying opportunities amid long-term challenges

with Anthony Bernard-Sasges and George Bowen | Online | December 6, 2023

The established world order of urban economic power is evolving and by 2050 there will be sizeable shifts. Many mature economic powerhouses in the developed world are facing demographic timebombs and are likely to fall down the global rankings as a result. Replacing them, in scale though not prosperity, will be cities in emerging markets, though these cities aren’t without risk and many face a plethora of challenges. In this webinar, we will discuss some of the key long-term trends, challenges and opportunities facing city economies.

Webinar

Global EM Key themes for 2024 – disinflation prevails

with Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | December 5, 2023

Global economic travails will present a challenge for EMs next year, but we see EM disinflation progressing more smoothly than 2023. Covid and other legacies will still trouble several EMs; we outline our biggest concerns and where we see the greatest opportunities.

Webinar

Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

Webinar

Travel growth to continue to defy economic slowdown

with Helen McDermott and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 11, 2023

International travel recovery has continued throughout 2023 to date and is set for further growth into 2024 despite slowdown and considerable uncertainty in key economic drivers. Consumers are prioritising travel experiences over other discretionary spending while some continued rebalancing of domestic and international travel is evident. We will also explore the extent to which emerging market demand will become a key driver.

Webinar

EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

Webinar

Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

Webinar

What can AE central banks learn from EMs?

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | July 18, 2023

Major advanced economy (AE) central banks have been criticised for the extent to which inflation has overshot target. Indeed, sticky core inflation and strong wage growth have prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to resume tightening after a pause, while the Bank of England has been forced to increase the rate of tightening once again. In this webinar, we explore the extent to which AEs would be in a stronger position had they followed some of their emerging market (EM) counterparts and hiked earlier.

Webinar

Why travel will recover this year in the face of economic headwinds

with Dave Goodger and Helen McDermott | Online | June 23, 2023

2023 will mark a return to pre-pandemic levels of global travel activity, despite a slowing global economy. The reasons for this recovery, and expectations for ongoing growth will be explored within this webinar. The travel sector in advanced economies is proving resilient to the current economic headwinds as households are prioritising a return to leisure travel activities, despite the squeeze on incomes. Corporate travel is also returning in sharp contrast to predictions of the demise of this segment. Emerging markets are also resuming an important role in shaping demand now the majority of travel restrictions are lifted and are growing in importance.

Webinar

Build-to-rent in Australia: Elevated opportunities as barriers clear

with Timothy Hibbert and Michael Dyer | Online | June 6, 2023

Australia’s build-to-rent (BTR) sector has undergone a period of rapid growth over the last couple of years. While to date the majority of projects have involved domestic participants, recent policy developments have set the scene for further global participation.

Webinar

Pockets of value in frontier markets

with Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | May 31, 2023

Based on our recently released report, we will talk about value traps and good individual stories in the high-yield space. We will focus on our asset views on Kenya, Pakistan, Egypt and Sri Lanka, discussing how the external outlook and debt sustainability metrics feed into bond prices.

Webinar

EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

Webinar

Disinflation will trigger some EMs to pivot ahead of the Fed

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | March 22, 2023

We examine which EM central banks will win the race to pivot, focusing on differences the extent to which core and services sector inflation generate persistence. Our historical analysis suggest EMs are able to get ahead of Fed pivots.

Webinar

Brighter skies ahead for global air passenger demand

with Stephen Rooney and Paulos Ashebir Lakew | Online | March 21, 2023

While the economic slowdown is weighing on air passenger demand growth in advanced economies, excess savings will continue to allow realisation and prioritisation of some lingering pent-up demand. Domestic passenger volumes are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year in a number of markets, including the US. Growth will now be more evident for emerging markets, and notably for China with a clear timeline for re-opening now established and some uptick in outbound travel demand already evident as a result.