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Event
Global Economic Outlook Conference 2025

In-Person | February 5, 2025

5th February 2025 – 09.30am to 6pm 155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3TQ Growth in a time of shifting economic policy. As the pandemic disruption has dissipated, the global economy has settled back into a familiar pattern of weak growth and close to target inflation. But beneath the surface the way the global economy is growing...

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Event
米大統領選後の世界経済の展望 ～産業別需要予測と成長の鍵～

In-Person | November 21, 2024

Event 米大統領選後の世界経済の展望 ～産業別需要予測と成長の鍵～ 21st November 2024 – 3:00pm to 5:00pm 東京都千代田区大手町1-4-1　 米大統領選後の世界経済の展望 ～産業別需要予測と成長の鍵～    今次セミナーでは、米国大統領選の結果を踏まえた2025年の世界経済の最新見通しをご説明したうえで、そうしたマクロ経済見通しが各産業の直面する需要にどのような影響を与えるか在日代表の長井滋人とエコノミストの土屋誠人よりご紹介します。 世界的に進む利下げは製造業や建設業を中心に2025年の産業活動を押し上げます。当社のアプローチは産業毎の金利感応度だけでなく、原材料や建材などのサプライチェーンを通じた関連産業への波及効果も勘案しています。 経済モデルを用いた当社の分析アプローチは複雑なマクロ変数間の相互作用を捉えるうえで有効なだけではなく、世界経済を巡る不確実性が高い状況で「中東情勢の悪化」「台湾有事」「高金利の長期化」などのシナリオ分析を行うことで、100超の産業別の売上、生産、投資の見通しについてリスクを定量的に把握でき、ビジネス上のリスク管理と高度な需要予測を行うことを可能にします。 ◆こんな方におすすめ： 　　 開催概要 日時：2024年11月21日（木）15:00-17:00※会場開催のみです。リアルタイム配信・アーカイブ配信はありません。  開催場所：株式会社国際協力銀行9F講堂 住所：東京都千代田区大手町1-4-1　Google Map: https://maps.app.goo.gl/7c9DMHeCH6rgV2ZX8 アクセス： 東京メトロ東西線 竹橋駅下車（大手町寄り） 3b出口直結東京メトロ・都営地下鉄 大手町駅（千代田線、半蔵門線、丸の内線、都営三田線）　徒歩5分東京メトロ・都営地下鉄神保町駅　徒歩5分  参加費：無料 使用言語：日本語定員：120名（定員に達し次第、受付終了となります） 締め切り：2024年11月14日（木）18:00  主催：オックスフォードエコノミクス、一般財団法人海外投融資情報財団後援：株式会社国際協力銀行 Agenda Speakers Register Now セミナーのお申し込みは終了しました。 セミナーに関するお問い合わせはメールにてお願いします。 [email protected] Related Services

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Webinar
What Mexico’s election results means for our outlook

with Joan Domene and Mauricio Monge | Online | June 12, 2024

We examine what Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election means for the short- and medium-term outlook. Our outlook already accounted for a continuation of AMLO’s policies under Sheinbaum, but a likely supermajority in Congress has revived concerns of a further deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals what will offset optimism around nearshoring benefits. The new administration is unlikely to alter the course of the economy for 2024, but downside risks for 2025 are growing especially due to the uncertain outcome of the US elections.

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Webinar
Can New Zealand build toward a better economy?

with Ben Udy and April Skinner | Online | May 9, 2024

Growth in New Zealand is slumping and the economy continues to teeter on the edge of a technical recession. Challenges in the constructions sector, particularly residential building, are weighing heavily on growth with construction work done still below its September 2022 peak.

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Webinar
Risks to a US soft landing

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | April 9, 2024

The economy is chugging along, and the outlook continues to turn a little rosier because of the strength of the labor market, easing in financial market conditions, solid household and nonfinancial corporate balance sheets along with disinflation. However, the economy is expected to moderate, leaving it vulnerable to anything that goes wrong.

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Webinar
Winter forecast update: US Industry and Tech Spending outlook

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | February 14, 2024

Our US Industry economists will provide an update on the latest US industry trends and outlook for 2024. This will include a discussion on key themes for the year, such as private sector spending on Tech Services and how we expect the Service sector to continue to outperform relative to the industrial economy. The more robust growth in manufacturing and service subsectors, like information services and electronics, is driven, in part, by strong end-user demand and a normalization of supply dynamics.

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Webinar
China: Will the ‘New Three’ industries prove an economic game-changer?

with Louise Loo | Online | February 2, 2024

A step-up in decarbonisation efforts has boosted growth in the new industries of electric vehicles, batteries, and renewables in China. To what extent are these proving to be the economy's new growth drivers? What can authorities do about the risk of overcapacity? Can these industries offset the macro drag from a shrinking housing sector?

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – July 2023

with Tony Stillo, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | August 10, 2023

The Canadian economy outperformed expectations in early 2023, but it was likely just a temporary reprieve from recession. In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow economists, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume discuss the economy’s recent resilience and the forces that make a moderate downturn unavoidable.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – March 2023

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | March 9, 2023

Canada’s housing market is in the midst of an historic correction. Home prices are already down about 15% from early 2022 highs and home sales have plummeted by more than 40%. With mortgage rates now peaking, the question on everyone’s mind is – How much longer will the housing downturn continue? In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the outlook for Canada’s housing market and why they believe the correction in housing hasn’t yet run its full course.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – December 2022

with Tony Stillo and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | December 21, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Associate Economist, Cassidy Rheaume discuss the unique factors that will shape Canada’s looming recession. Stronger-than-expected headline GDP growth in Q3 masks underlying weakness and we still believe that the economy is in the early stages of recession. No two recessions are alike. Unique pandemic and geopolitical factors will shape Canada's upcoming economic downturn.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2023 in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin, Felipe Camargo, Joan Domene and Debora Reyna | Online | November 28, 2022

We expect Latin American economies will be among the first to cut interest rates next year, but we also see the region falling into a shallow recession early in 2023. These, alongside the expectation that fiscal policy will feature more prominently in the debate, are amongst the key themes we believe will shape next year's economic outlook for Latin America.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Economy will soon enter a recession

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | November 18, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the recent tightening in financial market conditions will drive the US economy into a mild recession in 2023. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer won’t be immune to an increase in the unemployment rate and reduction in excess savings. The recession will be a garden variety downturn because there are no glaring imbalances. Tune in to learn where the US economy is headed in 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for US metros.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Middle East: Interest rates, exchange rates and oil – economic outlook to remain robust

with Scott Livermore | Online | October 24, 2022

The Middle East has been the fastest growing region globally this year, defying inflation pressures. Quite a few economies, particularly in the GCC, are still doing well and this relative outperformance should continue in 2023. However, the worsening global backdrop (namely recessions in the US and the EU) will increasingly weigh on regional growth momentum even as disinflation takes hold.

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