Events, Webinars and Podcasts

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – August 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | September 30, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the prospect of a recession in Canada and what a recession could look like in today’s unique post-pandemic landscape. Economic momentum is already decelerating, and the Canadian economy is likely in store for a period of very weak growth in the second half of 2022 and 2023. We still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the economy, but the landing strip is very narrow! We're increasingly concerned that overly aggressive monetary policy tightening with highly indebted household and a deepening housing correction could push the economy into recession. A recession isn’t a done deal just yet, but we think chances of a downturn are elevated at 40%.

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Webinar
Positioning for a shallow recession

with Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor | Online | September 26, 2022

We expect Q4 to be as challenging for markets as 2022 has been thus far. In our autumn webinar, our strategists Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor discuss key global macro themes, including, why we believe yields will soon peak even as real rates have risen, why equities are still poised for a turbulent period, and how credit will outperform other risk assets. As we move into 2023 we see increased opportunities for investors as policy differentiation takes hold and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.

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Webinar
What do we want? Sovereign crisis resolution. When do we want it? Now!

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | September 19, 2022

The biggest wave of sovereign defaults since the 1980s is upon us. Global institutional challenges – in particular the IMFs’ delicate relations with China – may prove to be an obstacle to efficient crisis resolution. We unpick the issues, focusing on our detailed analysis of debt composition in the most stressed economies.

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Webinar
Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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Webinar
Are we now on the cusp of another global recession?

with Ben May | Online | September 13, 2022

On the face of it, the quarter-on-quarter fall in global GDP in Q2 suggests that the world may be lurching back into recession. In our latest global webinar, we examine whether or not worse is to come in the second half of this year and the extent to which the outlook is likely to improve in 2023.

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Webinar
LatAm outlook: which central banks will be the first to cut rates in 2023?

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 2, 2022

As inflation reaches its peak, the key question in the region becomes which central bank will be the first to cut rates. Please join our LatAm chief economist Marcos Casarin as he provides an outlook update for the region focusing on the future of monetary policy and the implications for growth and exchange rates.

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Webinar
Post-elections brief, mapping the way forward for Kenya

with Louw Nel and Shani Smit | Online | August 18, 2022

In this post-election webinar, we will present our outlook on what the new presidency in Kenya means for the future of the economy and democracy in the country. The past decade under Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration has seen fiscal debt and youth unemployment become increasing points of concern in East Africa’s most advanced economy. How the new leader chooses to deal with these issues will be critical in shaping investor sentiment in Kenya. We will also explore the contentious topics of identity politics, corruption, and the rising cost of living.

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Webinar
Asian monetary policy and FX outlook amid aggressive Fed tightening

Online | August 18, 2022

There are several large shocks currently affecting Asian economies: a hawkish Fed; sluggish Chinese growth; and high energy prices. To this add a US dollar that is stronger than it has been in about 20 years. How are Asian economies likely to navigate these turbulent times? Our economists will focus on the likely direction of monetary policy in Asian and the consequent path of key financial variables in the region.

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Webinar
Canada Outlook: Soft landing still most likely but recession risks are rising

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | July 20, 2022

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to slow sharply in the latter portion of 2022 and in 2023 – likely to stall speed – as momentum from the reopening of the economy after Omicron fades and compounding threats weigh on growth. We're increasingly concerned that a conjunction of headwinds, led by an overly aggressive Bank of Canada tightening and a highly-indebted household sector, could push the economy into recession. While we still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for Canada, we reckon the odds of a recession over the next twelve months have risen to about 40%.

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Webinar
US Economic Outlook: Pathway to a softish landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | July 12, 2022

Recession headwinds have increased as the Fed is more aggressively front-loading rate hikes due to very sticky and elevated inflation. Despite the possibility of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there still remains a pathway, albeit narrowing, toward a softish landing. The easing of labor and product supply constraints and a still sizeable pool of consumer savings should underpin the expansion.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – May 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | June 24, 2022

Our Canada economists discuss their forecast for a 24% correction in Canadian house prices. Earlier this year, we forecast that Canada's housing market would hit an inflection point by the autumn of 2022 due to a combination of record unaffordability, higher interest rates and new government policies designed to cool demand and boost supply. There are early signs that this breaking point may have already been hit with average home prices in April already down 6% since February.

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Webinar
Global Economic Outlook Webinar: Will high inflation halt the recovery?

with Ben May | Online | June 16, 2022

The global economy has started 2022 on a distinctly soft note and uncertainties over the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, high inflation and activity restrictions continue to cloud the nearer-term outlook. While recession risks have certainly grown over recent months, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery. In this webinar, we provide an overview of our latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

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Webinar
Fed still has a good chance of navigating a soft landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | June 9, 2022

The Federal Reserve fell behind the inflation curve and now is committed to aggressively front-loading policy tightening, which is helping to send recession odds higher. We will discuss when they are likely to scale back on the tightening and the unique dynamics in this expansion that give the Federal Reserve a fighting chance to achieve a soft landing.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: New Headwinds Emerge

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | April 27, 2022

The Canadian economy weathered Omicron better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. The economic impact on Canada of Russia's invasion of Ukraine should be limited due to few direct trade and financial ties. Rather the fallout for Canada will be primarily via higher global energy and food prices, weaker external demand, and supply disruptions. Domestically, we now expect a correction in Canadian house prices will get underway by autumn, triggered by record unaffordability, rising interest rates, and new policies to tax house-flippers and non-resident-owned vacant homes.

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Webinar
UK Outlook: How many times will the MPC hike in 2022?

with Andrew Goodwin | Online | February 10, 2022

Though the impact of Omicron looks set to be small and short-lived, the UK economy faces strong headwinds from high inflation and tighter fiscal and monetary policy. In this webinar we will consider how these headwinds will impact on the growth outlook and assess whether markets are correct in anticipating a very aggressive policy response from the BoE.

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