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Webinar
Commodity key themes 2025: Another volatile year for commodity markets as Trump 2.0 looms

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Diego Cacciapuoti and Samuel Bakst | Online | December 16, 2024

In this webinar, we explore the key themes driving commodity markets in 2025. We expect the US will impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports next year, and that China will retaliate, weakening economic growth and commodity demand. Trump will also likely make major energy policy announcements early next year, intending to expand US oil production and boost LNG exports. We anticipate the US dollar will strengthen next year, putting further downward pressure on commodity prices. Furthermore, China, by far the largest consumer of commodities and with a structurally slowing economy, will drag on commodity demand next year without further stimulus, while OPEC+ faces another challenging year as the group sets to unwind production cuts.

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Webinar
Asia: Key themes for 2025

with Arup Raha | Online | November 26, 2024

We look at the key themes likely to play out in Asian economies over 2025. In particular, we look at the effects of likely US trade and monetary policy. Within Asiam, we discuss how China is likely to responds to a structural domestic slowdown and external headwinds. Lastly, we look at how AI may shape Asia's growth story.

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Webinar
Commodity outlook: How much further will prices fall?

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Diego Cacciapuoti, Samuel Bakst and Toby Whittington | Online | September 20, 2024

Commodity prices have plunged in recent weeks, and investment banks are slashing their forecasts for next year. Demand has been weaker than investors anticipated, especially in China, albeit broadly in line with our own more bearish expectations. Strong supply from commodities such as wheat, copper, and crude oil has also weighed heavily on prices and contributed to inventory build. Gold has been an exception, with central banks driving its price higher and making it a bright spot for the complex. In this webinar, we explore the key themes facing commodity markets in 2025 and discuss the outlook for supply, demand, and prices.

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Webinar
Global industry forecast update: Momentum is building

with Jeremy Leonard and Nico Palesch | Online | June 13, 2024

After two years of relatively sluggish activity we see signs that the worst has passed for global industry. Join our global industry team to get the latest on why we think the turnaround is imminent and in which regions and sectors it will be most keenly felt. Major themes include Europe, which has dug itself into a deep hole with respect to manufacturing activity over the past year, and why we think it on the verge of turning the corner back to growth and how US industry is expected to cope in and after what is expected to be a closely-fought and volatile election year. In the Asia-Pacific region we will discuss how Japan is dealing with the aftermath of the Daihatsu production line scandal that seriously dented Q1 industrial output and the extent to which China can continue relying on manufacturing sector output to boost overall growth amidst a volatile global environment, the threat of tariffs, and persistent worries around overcapacity.

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Webinar
Navigating supply chain decoupling – prioritizing opportunities with OE’s Market Compass tool

with Alex Mackle and Martina Bozadzhieva | Online | May 30, 2024

As companies de-risk their supply chains, many are looking at ways to reduce their dependence on China, and to create more flexible, regionalized supply chain structures. In this webinar, we look at the latest trends in supply chain restructuring and introduce OE's Market Compass tool. The tool allows companies to compare countries as manufacturing investment destinations using OE's proprietary data and forecasts. We'll explore how different countries compare in our global ranking and how companies can take a data-driven approach to evaluating manufacturing localization options.

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Webinar
Outlook gospodarczy dla Polski w świetle prognoz dla gospodarki światowej i europejskiej

with Mateusz Urban | Online | May 21, 2024

A divergence has opened in the world economy, with the US faring much better than China and the eurozone on the growth front. During the webinar, we will shed light on our thinking about world and European outlooks and their influence on the CEE region in general and the Polish economy in particular. We will scrutinize both growth and inflation prospects, views on monetary and fiscal policies as well as implications for FX and bond yields performance.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – Differentiated outcomes

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Felicity Hannon and Charlie Muir | Online | April 22, 2024

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of six climate scenarios against our Oxford Economics baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter, we examine the cross-country and cross-scenario effects in more detail. This helps us better understand how different economic structures and policies can result in differing economic impacts from climate risk. For this webinar, we do a deep dive on select countries such as the US, China, and France.

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Webinar
China’s New Manufacturing Push

with Louise Loo | Online | April 10, 2024

China’s industrial policy has played a pivotal role in its growth strategy over the past few decades. A renewed state-led push into “new industrialisation” and the “new productive forces” has the potential to accelerate the country’s move up the manufacturing value chain, but could also invite greater protectionist backlash and heighten China’s vulnerability to external demand shocks. We discuss these dynamics in greater detail and invite questions from our readers.

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Webinar
Unveiling the key source markets – including China – for APAC tourism destinations

with Federico Chirico and Michael Shoory | Online | April 4, 2024

We will explore growth prospects for key source markets – both established and emerging – for tourists within the APAC region, and the expected destinations of those travellers. As part of this, we will touch on global and regional trends for outbound travel, and consider the latest developments and outlook for the recovery of the Chinese outbound market. This includes the continued importance of China as a driver of demand relative to other growing markets, and the implications for a range of destinations.

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Webinar
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

with Louise Loo, Nicholas Fearnley and April Skinner | Online | April 2, 2024

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

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Webinar
China’s fiscal policy: shifting from local to central

with Louise Loo and Betty Wang | Online | March 22, 2024

1/ Is the official budget enough to help achieve the implied optimistic GDP growth in 2024? 2/ Does the issuance of special treasury bonds suggest a shift of stimulus focus from local governments to the central government? 3/ What could be the potential sectors receiving fiscal support?

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Webinar
Industry to rebuild momentum in 2024

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | March 14, 2024

As 2024 progresses global industrial activity should pick up and begin to rebuild some momentum. Pass-through from lower wholesale energy prices, a move past the peak of impacts from past rate hikes and a trough in the de-stocking cycle should benefit manufacturing activity in the advanced economies. In China, manufacturing activity is likely to be highly asymmetric in 2024, with growth concentrated in the energy transition adjacent ‘New Three’ industries, while the ongoing property sector slump will curtail construction and its supply chain.

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
China: Will the ‘New Three’ industries prove an economic game-changer?

with Louise Loo | Online | February 2, 2024

A step-up in decarbonisation efforts has boosted growth in the new industries of electric vehicles, batteries, and renewables in China. To what extent are these proving to be the economy's new growth drivers? What can authorities do about the risk of overcapacity? Can these industries offset the macro drag from a shrinking housing sector?

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Webinar
ETC tourism trends and prospects: Q4 2023

with Chloe Parkins, Dave Goodger and Menno Van IJseel | Online | January 25, 2024

Tourism Economics will provide an overview of the latest tourism sector trends and outlook in Europe. This will include how international travel performed towards the end of 2023, with more countries verging on recovery. Further to this, we will delve into the prospects for recovery from China and other longer-haul markets.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Middle East escalation

with Jamie Thompson | Online | December 12, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We examine the risks posed by an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the potential fall-out from increased China-Taiwan tensions and a period of higher for longer interest rates. We also highlight the latest findings from our regular Global Risk Surveys.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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Webinar
Commodities: prospects uncertain amid tepid Chinese demand, Fed tightness and potential further OPEC+ supply reductions

with Kiran Ahmed and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | September 19, 2023

Commodity markets remain carefully balanced amid uncertain Chinese demand, a tighter Fed policy outlook and the potential for further supply reductions by OPEC+ members. Recent stimulus efforts aimed at the Chinese property sector have given some cause for optimism but doubts remain as to the longevity of any demand rally. At the same time, the natural gas sector readies itself for the winter season amid significantly improved circumstances than were present this time last year.

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