Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Mid-year high convictions in Emerging Markets Assets

with Felipe Camargo, Lucila Bonilla and Sergi Lanau | Online | June 5, 2024

The global context is that central banks continue to focus almost entirely on inflation and tight policy will become a downside risk for global and EM activity. We are below consensus on EM growth in 2024. We see impetus running out of steam in most EM regions, and we are generally optimistic on EM disinflation, more so in LatAm than CEE. We remain neutral on EM FX. Fed-related undershoots are balanced by risks of drawdowns driven by spells of wider rate differentials. We see opportunities in local currency debt in LatAm after April’s EM-wide sell-off; and we still find long-term valuation metrics compelling. Mexican and Turkish rates appear attractive. Tight valuations weight on sovereign credit but we see good opportunities, particularly in Colombia and Angola.

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Webinar
Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

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Webinar
Russian gas exports: the past, the present and the future

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Tatiana Orlova | Online | September 8, 2022

Gazprom, which has drastically reduced gas flow via Nord Stream 1, is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. But Russia is stuck with a pipeline system built to supply Europe. Notwithstanding the present gas war, it's in Russia's interest to continue providing Europe with gas while it builds new pipelines to Asia. Therefore, we see the scope of an easing of the gas crisis in the coming months.

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Webinar
CEE shows limits of monetary policy in taming inflation

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | August 17, 2022

Similar inflation outcomes in CEE demonstrate the limits of monetary policy in combating the current surge in inflation. Slovakia has had a much looser monetary policy but its inflation rate has been similar to other CEE countries with sovereign central banks that have hiked aggressively since 2021. In this webinar, we will discuss the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy tightening in countering supply-driven, imported inflation, and its wider implications for the EM economies.

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Webinar
Ukraine and CEE economies – learning to live with the war and its consequences

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | April 11, 2022

The Ukrainian economy has halved in sized since the Russian invasion. We take stock of the how Ukraine is coping with such unprecedented stress. With exports blocked at sea and sowing season at risk, we also highlight which commodities are of systemic importance globally. We’ll pay particular attention to our analysis of the knock-on effects that underpin our downward revisions to CEE output growth.

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