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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Economy stalls as hard landing inexorably grinds nearer

with Tony Stillo and Callee Davis | Online | October 5, 2023

Canada's economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Growth stalled in two of the last three quarters and momentum entering Q3 was weak. Key imbalances – highly indebted households and overvalued house prices – can't evade the coming full impact of the Bank of Canada's aggressive hike in the policy rate. An imminent consumer pullback, combined with a deepening housing correction, will finally push the economy into recession.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – July 2023

with Tony Stillo, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | August 10, 2023

The Canadian economy outperformed expectations in early 2023, but it was likely just a temporary reprieve from recession. In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow economists, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume discuss the economy’s recent resilience and the forces that make a moderate downturn unavoidable.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – March 2023

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | March 9, 2023

Canada’s housing market is in the midst of an historic correction. Home prices are already down about 15% from early 2022 highs and home sales have plummeted by more than 40%. With mortgage rates now peaking, the question on everyone’s mind is – How much longer will the housing downturn continue? In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the outlook for Canada’s housing market and why they believe the correction in housing hasn’t yet run its full course.

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Webinar
Key Themes for Canada in 2023: A year in recession

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | January 26, 2023

Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023. Prevailing household debt and housing imbalances will mix with pandemic and geopolitical forces to make Canada's recession deeper than most advanced economies. We expect GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2023, well-below consensus expectations, with six key themes featuring prominently.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – December 2022

with Tony Stillo and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | December 21, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Associate Economist, Cassidy Rheaume discuss the unique factors that will shape Canada’s looming recession. Stronger-than-expected headline GDP growth in Q3 masks underlying weakness and we still believe that the economy is in the early stages of recession. No two recessions are alike. Unique pandemic and geopolitical factors will shape Canada's upcoming economic downturn.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – August 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | September 30, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the prospect of a recession in Canada and what a recession could look like in today’s unique post-pandemic landscape. Economic momentum is already decelerating, and the Canadian economy is likely in store for a period of very weak growth in the second half of 2022 and 2023. We still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the economy, but the landing strip is very narrow! We're increasingly concerned that overly aggressive monetary policy tightening with highly indebted household and a deepening housing correction could push the economy into recession. A recession isn’t a done deal just yet, but we think chances of a downturn are elevated at 40%.

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Webinar
Canada Outlook: Soft landing still most likely but recession risks are rising

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | July 20, 2022

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to slow sharply in the latter portion of 2022 and in 2023 – likely to stall speed – as momentum from the reopening of the economy after Omicron fades and compounding threats weigh on growth. We're increasingly concerned that a conjunction of headwinds, led by an overly aggressive Bank of Canada tightening and a highly-indebted household sector, could push the economy into recession. While we still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for Canada, we reckon the odds of a recession over the next twelve months have risen to about 40%.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – May 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | June 24, 2022

Our Canada economists discuss their forecast for a 24% correction in Canadian house prices. Earlier this year, we forecast that Canada's housing market would hit an inflection point by the autumn of 2022 due to a combination of record unaffordability, higher interest rates and new government policies designed to cool demand and boost supply. There are early signs that this breaking point may have already been hit with average home prices in April already down 6% since February.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: New Headwinds Emerge

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | April 27, 2022

The Canadian economy weathered Omicron better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. The economic impact on Canada of Russia's invasion of Ukraine should be limited due to few direct trade and financial ties. Rather the fallout for Canada will be primarily via higher global energy and food prices, weaker external demand, and supply disruptions. Domestically, we now expect a correction in Canadian house prices will get underway by autumn, triggered by record unaffordability, rising interest rates, and new policies to tax house-flippers and non-resident-owned vacant homes.

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