with Ben May and Innes McFee
March 20, 2023
We’ve recently revised up our world GDP growth forecast for 2023 modestly and continue to see only modest recessions at worst in key advanced economies. The recent failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have nonetheless highlighted the risk of a more substantive and disorderly further tightening in financial conditions which could in turn have adverse spillovers to the real economy. In this webinar, we set out why we have kept our baseline forecasts unchanged in response to these recent events and set out what we would need to see from here to trigger a substantive downward revision to our baseline forecasts.