Events, Webinars and Podcasts

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Africa: What to expect from elections in 2023

with Pieter Scribante, Louw Nel, Francois Conradie and Zaynab Mohamed | Online | January 31, 2023

Thirteen African countries are scheduled to hold presidential or legislative elections this year. This webinar will focus on the four elections of greatest potential impact: Nigeria, home to the largest population in Africa; Zimbabwe, where the fractious and unloved Zanu-PF has already unleashed violence on its opponents; Gabon, where President Ali Bongo may try (again) to cheat to get a third term; and the DRC, where armed conflict is complicating the already massive task of registering 50 million voters across a territory the size of Western Europe. We will also touch on the elections in Eswatini, Libya, and Madagascar.

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Webinar
Africa Watchlist 2023

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | December 6, 2022

Africa’s economic resilience will be tested in 2023 as the west and east battle it out for the fastest-growing region. What are the factors that might precipitate recessions in the continent’s largest economies, and where could the next debt restructuring take place? A flare-up in tensions may lead to conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, jeopardising economic integration within the East African Community. Zimbabwe heads to the polls next year – will we see meaningful change this time? In this webinar we will take a closer look at these key themes for Africa in 2023.

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Webinar
Africa in 2023

with Callee Davis and Jacques Nel | Online | November 15, 2022

The global economy is on the cusp of a recession. A number of African economies have historically been able to shrug off an unfavourable external backdrop, but a marked tightening in global financial conditions will make this time more challenging. In this session we will give our view on how 2023 will unfold on the continent and what we should, and shouldn’t, expect.

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Webinar
Untangling the African political economy patchwork

with Pieter Scribante and Jacques Nel | Online | October 25, 2022

The African policy environment is volatile and difficult to predict due to complex interconnections between politics and economics. By using political economy risk tools, we can better understand where we could see the most severe policy volatility and what direction this policy might take. In this session we explore the findings of our updated political economy framework. These findings include in what way the nature of challenges to government supremacy matter – challenges by civil society (South Africa, Botswana, and Mauritius) have qualitatively different outcomes to challenges by the military or armed groups (Mozambique, Libya, and Ethiopia) – and how elections feed into policy decisions.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
A perspective on Just Energy Transitions in Africa

with Deon Fourie | Online | September 6, 2022

One of the key expected outcomes from the upcoming COP27 summit is for earnest action to be taken by global climate leaders to close the enormous funding gap that is restraining the ability of African countries to transition to low-carbon economies. A central feature of this transition involves the sustained displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy and complementary technologies. This transformation process, however, must be carefully managed in such a way that the net social and economic benefits outweigh the costs. In this webinar, we offer a perspective on what the structural changes to more environmentally sustainable energy systems may mean for a number of African countries. We also offer insights into energy transitions within the distinct developmental circumstances and energy structures of these countries, along with highlighting the likely implications for energy investment and the factors to be considered in the climate deliberations at COP27 in Egypt.

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Webinar
Post-elections brief, mapping the way forward for Kenya

with Louw Nel and Shani Smit | Online | August 18, 2022

In this post-election webinar, we will present our outlook on what the new presidency in Kenya means for the future of the economy and democracy in the country. The past decade under Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration has seen fiscal debt and youth unemployment become increasing points of concern in East Africa’s most advanced economy. How the new leader chooses to deal with these issues will be critical in shaping investor sentiment in Kenya. We will also explore the contentious topics of identity politics, corruption, and the rising cost of living.

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Webinar
Understanding the climate risks faced by Africa

with Felicity Hannon and Francesca Jones | Online | July 11, 2022

In this webinar, Francesca Jones will present Oxford Economics’ latest climate scenarios. The expanded country coverage offers an enhanced understanding of the climate risks faced by Africa. Our findings show that Africa is responsible for a small proportion of global emissions, yet its economy is highly vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change. A transition to a low carbon economy could support productivity growth through lower global temperatures and create significant investment opportunities due to the huge solar and geothermal potential in the region.

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Webinar
Unlocking the potential of Africa’s most valuable resource

with Shani Smit | Online | July 5, 2022

The story of youth unemployment in Africa is often told alongside the tale of fast and steady economic growth on the continent. With more than 200 million people aged between 15 and 24, Africa has the largest population of young people in the world, and current trends indicate a doubling of the numbers by 2045. Therefore, investing in their education, health, and protection will be key to unlocking a demographic dividend in the 21st century. This webinar will look at the different options that governments and other sectors have to unleash this potential.

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Webinar
Global Economic Outlook Webinar: Will high inflation halt the recovery?

with Ben May | Online | June 16, 2022

The global economy has started 2022 on a distinctly soft note and uncertainties over the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, high inflation and activity restrictions continue to cloud the nearer-term outlook. While recession risks have certainly grown over recent months, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery. In this webinar, we provide an overview of our latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

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Webinar
Africa’s ability to adapt in a changing landscape

with Jacques Nel and Greg Struyweg | Online | May 31, 2022

Relations between Russia and the West have changed irreversibly. This will have a lasting impact on the global economy. The outlook for a number of commodities has changed fundamentally. Economic structure may be destiny: Algeria received an unexpected reprieve at a moment that otherwise looked threatening, whereas the picture for energy-importing Tunisia is suddenly bleaker than ever. This webinar looks at which African countries have the economic structures to make the best of the situation. We also look at where institutional factors will play either a positive or negative role in this transition - highly centralised and personalised systems, in which popular anger can be focussed narrowly, are more fragile than democratic and liberal ones in which hardship is experienced as impersonal.

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Webinar
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries

with Gabriel Sterne, Regis Chatellier and Maya Senussi | Online | May 24, 2022

Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.

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Webinar
Food price inflation could hit Africa the hardest

with Jacques Nel and Petro van Eck | Online | April 26, 2022

Food accounts for a large share of the consumer price basket in a number of African countries. This means that the impact of surging global food prices will be marked. Higher food prices will filter through to consumers and undermine purchasing power. But the impact will extend far beyond headline CPI: calls for subsidies will either be heeded, putting pressure on the fiscus, or disregarded, resulting in social discontent. In this webinar we look at which African countries look set to be hit the hardest and what this means for the fiscus, monetary policy, and political stability.

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Webinar
Filling the void: Africa’s role in European energy security

with Callee Davis and Zaynab Mohamed | Online | March 29, 2022

As Western Europe accelerates a structural transition away from Russian energy dependence, Africa will play a salient role in filling this void. In this webinar we explore how a more pressing shift towards renewable energy and a reduction on Russian hydrocarbon dependence will increase demand for African renewable and non-renewable resources. We also look at where political, institutional and governance risks might hinder this transition.

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Webinar
When the taps run dry: Egypt’s susceptibility to capital outflows

with Callee Davis | Online | January 25, 2022

Portfolio inflows have become central in funding Egypt’s external position – a sudden reversal spells trouble for the North African nation. In this webinar we show how Egypt’s foreign reserve buffer would be impacted by a sudden deterioration in emerging market sentiment, what this would mean for the Egyptian pound, and how this might impede some of the economic reform progress made so far.

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Webinar
Zambia’s national elections, a pivotal moment for the country’s economy and democracy

Online | July 27, 2021

The August 12 national elections could mark a key turning point for Zambia’s future. Under President Edgar Lungu’s rule, the business environment has become increasingly hostile, especially for foreign companies seeking to benefit from the country’s copper resources. Additionally, Zambia defaulted on its debt during the coronavirus pandemic and a deal with the IMF would certainly be useful – the election outcome will determine the conditions of any potential deal. Deteriorating economic conditions have left Mr Lungu struggling for political survival ahead of the polls, while his main rival, successful businessman Hakainde Hichilema, has positioned himself as a potential saviour of the economy. Questions about whether the two-horse race will be fair are raising concerns about the future of democracy in Zambia.

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Webinar
The drive towards a greener future: Where does Africa fit in?

Online | June 29, 2021

The recent spike in commodity prices is largely attributable to supply constraints and supply-chain disruptions. Yet, some commodities will be key in the green transition and may thus experience sustained demand growth in the long term. This webinar will focus on these commodities in an African context by showing where they are currently being mined, and we investigate the potential role that the continent may play in the green revolution. We also look at how South Africa has been one of the world’s biggest beneficiaries of the commodity boom, but suggest that its current mineral profile isn’t particularly future-proof.

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Webinar
Workforce composition and economic productivity in Africa

Online | May 25, 2021

Much has been said about the ‘demographic dividend’: how disposable income increases as the dependency ratio in a country goes down. Less work has been done on the influence of demographic changes – specifically, a maturing workforce – on economic productivity. This webinar will summarise a simplified analysis of how, in developed countries, the maturing of the demographic profile has been associated with increased economic productivity. Next, we will go over the demographic forecasts for Africa and consider what they may mean for future economic output on the

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Webinar
Shining a spotlight on key African economic sectors in the post-Covid-19 world

Online | April 20, 2021

The Covid-19 shock upended the African growth model, with the short-term drivers of growth shifting towards government consumption as supply-chain severance disrupted industry. However, did the pandemic change the face of the growth model over the longer term, too? Covid-19 served as a catalyst to lower the barriers to financial inclusivity, cashless transactions, and technological advancement, but the ripple effects of the pandemic extend beyond the services sector. Delving into the more granular details of the sectoral outlook, we investigate which subsectors may emerge as long-term winners and which ones might be left behind in the post-Covid world.

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