Assessing the risk of an inflation regime change
Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation regime which could feature inflation persistently above 5% and with very different dynamics. Such a shift would have profound consequences for economies and financial markets. In this webinar, we explore the risks of such an outcome, drawing lessons from past shifts in regime change.
While the evidence suggests a shift to a high inflation regime can’t be ruled out, for now we would only give it a probability of around 10% for the global economy, and a slightly higher 15% for the US.
We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas:
- APAC – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 HKT
- EMEA – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 BST
- Americas – Wednesday 16th June | 16:00 EDT
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May | Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy. Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.
Adam Slater | Lead Economist
Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate Oxford Economics’ global macroeconomic view, including writing for and helping edit regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and a specific forecast interest in the Japanese economy. He is also involved in Oxford Economics’ work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, Adam spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank, and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analysing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised regions. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers. Adam gained a first-class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University.
Will Asia construction survive rising construction costs?
The construction sector has seen a surge in activity following the gradual fading in Covid restrictions across different countries. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continued lockdowns in China have further exacerbated supply chain constraints and increasing construction costs. In this webinar we will discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia including the risks and implications of increasing construction costs.Find Out More
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries
Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.Find Out More