Assessing the risk of an inflation regime change

Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation regime which could feature inflation persistently above 5% and with very different dynamics. Such a shift would have profound consequences for economies and financial markets. In this webinar, we explore the risks of such an outcome, drawing lessons from past shifts in regime change.

While the evidence suggests a shift to a high inflation regime can’t be ruled out, for now we would only give it a probability of around 10% for the global economy, and a slightly higher 15% for the US.

We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas:

  • APAC – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 HKT
  • EMEA – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 BST
  • Americas – Wednesday 16th June | 16:00 EDT

Ben May

Director of Global Macroeconomic Research

Ben May

Director of Global Macroeconomic Research

Ben May | Director of Global Macroeconomic Research

Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy. Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.

Adam Slater

Lead Economist

Adam Slater

Lead Economist

Adam Slater | Lead Economist

Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate Oxford Economics’ global macroeconomic view, including writing for and helping edit regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and a specific forecast interest in the Japanese economy. He is also involved in Oxford Economics’ work on a variety of consultancy projects.

Before joining Oxford Economics, Adam spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank, and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analysing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised regions. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers. Adam gained a first-class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University.

Back to Events

Related Services

Africa globe

Event

Africa: What to expect from elections in 2023

Thirteen African countries are scheduled to hold presidential or legislative elections this year. This webinar will focus on the four elections of greatest potential impact: Nigeria, home to the largest population in Africa; Zimbabwe, where the fractious and unloved Zanu-PF has already unleashed violence on its opponents; Gabon, where President Ali Bongo may try (again) to cheat to get a third term; and the DRC, where armed conflict is complicating the already massive task of registering 50 million voters across a territory the size of Western Europe. We will also touch on the elections in Eswatini, Libya, and Madagascar.

Find Out More

Event

Global Climate Service: Climate Catastrophe

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Climate Catastrophe – underscores the costs of climate inaction. It models a high-emissions pathway by which global warming, temperature volatility and more frequent extreme heat events cause severe physical damages that accelerate over time.

Find Out More