US Executive Podcast – June 2021
Gregory Daco, Chief US Economist, and Lydia Boussour, Lead US Economist, discuss how the latest economic data point to a summer boom with supply gradually responding to stronger demand. While retail sales were softer than expected in May, the report fails to capture the ongoing consumer spending rotation into services. Meanwhile, industrial activity remains on a solid path, despite supply bottlenecks. They also discuss the Fed’s pivot away from its extremely accommodative stance, with more sanguine economic forecasts and a revised median interest rate ‘dot plot’ showing two rate hikes in 2023. With the Fed now actively discussing QE tapering, we continue to expect a formal announcement in August with tapering starting early next year, followed by two hikes in 2023.
Related Services
Event
Will Asia construction survive rising construction costs?
The construction sector has seen a surge in activity following the gradual fading in Covid restrictions across different countries. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continued lockdowns in China have further exacerbated supply chain constraints and increasing construction costs. In this webinar we will discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia including the risks and implications of increasing construction costs.
Find Out More
Event
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries
Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.
Find Out More