US Executive Podcast – April 2021
Gregory Daco, Chief US Economist, and Kathy Bostjancic, Chief US Financial Economist, discuss the US economy being at an inflection point with activity and employment growth starting to accelerate. The highlight of the week was the ebullient 9.8% increase in March retail sales, which was the second largest gain on record. With stimulus checks in hand, consumers took advantage of warmer weather and increased vaccinations to go on a spending spree.
Reflective of the stronger data, we have revised up our Q1 real GDP growth tracker to 9.0% (from 6.9%). And, while our April baseline foresees real GDP growth averaging 7.2% this year, a stronger start to the year may push growth above 8% – the strongest pace since 1951. Inflationary pressures are rising, but we look for price growth to ease in the second half of this year thanks to increased production and the resolution of supply chain disruptions. We foresee the Fed maintain a dovish stance and refraining from rate hikes until 2023.
Climate change: The big hairy audacious problem… with the big hairy questions
Climate change is here. And (almost) everyone accepts that urgent and transformational action is necessary by policymakers and organisations to understand and mitigate its impact. But it’s a larger, broader and more complex challenge than any other we’ve faced in modern times, and many organisations are struggling to decide where to start, let alone what to do. There are definitely more questions than answers. We have brought together experts from across Oxford Economics to discuss some of the questions they have been asked recently.Find Out More
Economic woes and travel flows – tourism outlook
Travel recovery has accelerated throughout 2022, with strong rebounds evident in a wide range of destinations during the northern hemisphere summer months, as travellers have begun to return to more typical activities. However, complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels is not guaranteed. In this session we will explore the impacts of the slower economic activity and rising costs on travel demand and present our latest global outlook.Find Out More