European retail and consumer spending outlook and trends in the post-COVID world
The pandemic has caused fundamental shifts in the macroeconomy and consumer behaviour across Europe. But are these trends here to stay and what is the consumer outlook over the short and medium-term? In this session, we will explore the big picture macro and consumer & retail sales outlook, prospects for excess savings fuelling a mini consumer boom, changing composition of consumer spending, the rise of online shopping vs in-store, tourism developments related to the consumer sector and the sub-national regional patterns of consumer spending.
Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for Americas, APAC and EMEA friendly timezones:
- EMEA – Wednesday 19th May | 10:00 BST
- Americas – Wednesday 19th May | 16:00 EDT
- APAC – Thursday 20th May | 10:00 HKT
Graeme Harrison | Director of Oxford Economics’ Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Macroeconomic Consulting
Graeme Harrison is Director of Oxford Economics’ Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Macroeconomic Consulting and is a member of Oxford Economics’ Senior Management Team. Graeme is a highly experienced manager of large-scale complex projects involving cross-team and cross-office OE teams, including Oxford’s macro forecast team, country economists and Cities & Regions team. Graeme manages large-scale bespoke economic modelling, forecasting, scenario, impact assessment and strategic advisory consulting projects across the globe for corporate and public clients including consumer and tech multinationals, the Big Four professional services firms, major management consultancies and government ministries.
George Bowen | Economist
George is an economist in the Cities and Regions team at Oxford Economics, and forecasts a number of cities across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. George has contributed to a number of consulting projects ranging from analysis of the consumer and retail sector, to real estate, through to sustainability.
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities
Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.Find Out More
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?
China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.Find Out More