The near- and long-term economic impact of the US election

Former President Donald Trump will return to the White House next year, with Republicans likely controlling both the House of Representatives and Senate. Lawmakers will have to address three major fiscal deadlines in 2025: the debt limit, the expiring Trump tax cuts, and FY2026 government funding.

Meaningful actions on tax and spending policy are in store. Meanwhile, a Trump White House will proceed unilaterally on trade and immigration policy. We will focus on changes to the baseline forecast and the risks to the US outlook, including fiscal sustainability.

Bernard Yaros

Lead US Economist

+1 (646) 786 1879

Bernard Yaros

Lead US Economist

New York, United States

Bernard is a Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics. He was previously an Assistant Director at Moody’s Analytics, where he analyzed the U.S. economy, focusing on federal fiscal policy. His work on the federal government has been widely cited by the media, members of Congress, and even the White House.

Bernard holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the Barcelona School of Economics and a B.A. in Political Economy from Williams College.

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

+1 (646) 668 5790

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Ryan Sweet is the Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and assessing the US macroeconomic outlook and how it will influence monetary policy and financial markets. Ryan is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan led real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics and was a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He was also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve and examining its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

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