[Podcast] The Macrocast: September 2021
[Episode 6] This episode focuses on the outlook for the remainder of 2021, particularly regarding how the spread of the Delta variant has affected our forecasts, how we see inflation progressing, and what that means for monetary policy.
About Oxford Economics Macrocast: Hosted by Julia Faurschou, each month we’ll discuss some of the key themes driving the macroeconomic agenda. Featuring interviews with top Oxford Economists, we’ll dig into our research pipeline to tell you what’s on our minds and what we’ll be writing about in the coming weeks. By tuning in each month, listeners will get an early picture of what to watch out for and the thinking behind our research.
This Podcast is available to listen to on-demand until the 7th October 2021.
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?
Policy announcements are coming thick and fast in the UK at the moment and have been greeted with the most significant sell-off in UK assets in decades. Is this a case of markets overreacting or have the UK public finances been put on an unsustainable footing? Will the Bank of England react to the fall in sterling or are markets setting themselves up to be disappointed? We will set out our views on all these topics and set out the conditions under which we think this volatility will subside.Find Out More
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.Find Out More