Putting the health of the US consumer under the microscope

Date: 13 June 2024

The Federal Reserve is attentive to the risks to the inflation outlook, but there are other things that are starting to worry it, including low- and middle-income household finances. There are clear signs that the finances of low- and moderate-income households are increasingly coming under pressure, which limits the upside risk to our forecast for growth in real consumer spending over the next year.

In this webinar we look at the health of the consumer and how the strength of the labor market, rising asset prices, inflation and interest rates impact those across the income distribution. We will explore the reasons behind the rise in consumer delinquency rates and whether rising use of buy-now-pay later services is a warning sign.

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

+1 (646) 668 5790

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Ryan Sweet is the Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and assessing the US macroeconomic outlook and how it will influence monetary policy and financial markets. Ryan is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan led real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics and was a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He was also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve and examining its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

+1 (347) 756 6500

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.

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