Mid-year high convictions in Emerging Markets Assets
The global context is that central banks continue to focus almost entirely on inflation and tight policy will become a downside risk for global and EM activity.
We are below consensus on EM growth in 2024. We see impetus running out of steam in most EM regions, and we are generally optimistic on EM disinflation, more so in LatAm than CEE. We remain neutral on EM FX. Fed-related undershoots are balanced by risks of drawdowns driven by spells of wider rate differentials.
We see opportunities in local currency debt in LatAm after April’s EM-wide sell-off; and we still find long-term valuation metrics compelling. Mexican and Turkish rates appear attractive. Tight valuations weight on sovereign credit but we see good opportunities, particularly in Colombia and Angola.

Felipe Camargo
Lead Global Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8047

Felipe Camargo
Lead Global Economist
London, United Kingdom
Felipe is a Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, based in London, UK. He is resposible for the macroeconomic coverage and forecast of Brazil, as well as bespoke quantitative research on global macro topics. Felipe has extensive experience covering emerging market economies and developed skills as a macro strategist since his prior years at a Brazilian pension fund. He currently holds an MSc in economics from Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8144

Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
London, United Kingdom
Lucila holds a BA in Economics and a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy from the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro and strategy, along with country-specific coverage of Argentina and Uruguay. She joined Oxford Economics after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).

Sergi Lanau
Director of Global Emerging Markets Strategy

Sergi Lanau
Director of Global Emerging Markets Strategy
London, United Kingdom
Sergi’s research focuses on emerging and frontier markets. He joined Oxford Economics in 2023. He previously worked on emerging markets and the eurozone at the Institute of International Finance and IMF. He began his career at the Bank of England.
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