Mid-year high convictions in Emerging Markets Assets
The global context is that central banks continue to focus almost entirely on inflation and tight policy will become a downside risk for global and EM activity.
We are below consensus on EM growth in 2024. We see impetus running out of steam in most EM regions, and we are generally optimistic on EM disinflation, more so in LatAm than CEE. We remain neutral on EM FX. Fed-related undershoots are balanced by risks of drawdowns driven by spells of wider rate differentials.
We see opportunities in local currency debt in LatAm after April’s EM-wide sell-off; and we still find long-term valuation metrics compelling. Mexican and Turkish rates appear attractive. Tight valuations weight on sovereign credit but we see good opportunities, particularly in Colombia and Angola.
Felipe Camargo
Senior Economist, Latin America
+52 55 7100 1823
Felipe Camargo
Senior Economist, Latin America
Mexico City, Mexico
Felipe is a Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, based in Mexico City. Born in Brazil, he is currently responsible for the macroeconomic forecast for Argentina and Chile, as well as bespoke research for Emerging Market economies, with a focus on Latin America. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2019, Felipe worked as a macro strategist for Brazil’s third biggest pension fund, Funcef. He currently holds an MSc in economics from Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8144
Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
London, United Kingdom
Lucila holds a BA in Economics and a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy from the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro and strategy, along with country-specific coverage of Argentina and Uruguay. She joined Oxford Economics after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).
Sergi Lanau
Director of Global Emerging Markets Strategy
Sergi Lanau
Director of Global Emerging Markets Strategy
London, United Kingdom
Sergi’s research focuses on emerging and frontier markets. He joined Oxford Economics in 2023. He previously worked on emerging markets and the eurozone at the Institute of International Finance and IMF. He began his career at the Bank of England.
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