Key trends for global industry in 2022
Topic: The early phase of the post-pandemic industrial expansion was exceptionally strong, but momentum waned in the second half of this year as component and raw materials shortages stymied production and raised costs. Rising backlogs and still-firm demand augur an acceleration in activity even as the broader sources of economic growth shift toward services – but supply chain constraints will linger well into next year, backloading the industrial growth profile.
Director of Global Industry Services
Director of Global Industry Services
Jeremy Leonard |Director of Global Industry Services
Jeremy Leonard is responsible for overseeing the work of the industry forecasting team and managing the operation and output of Oxford Economics’ 74-country, 100-sector Global Industry Model as well as related consultancy work. Jeremy’s knowledge and past experience span a broad range, including competitiveness and offshoring/reshoring, commodity price modelling, and applied economic research on sectors ranging from biotech to heavy manufacturing to telecoms.
Charlie Muir | Assistant Economist
Charlie first joined Oxford Economics in 2019 during a placement year that formed part of his undergraduate degree. He worked for the Data team for over a year, supporting the Industry team with all data requirements and forecasting numerous manufacturing subsectors. He then returned to the University of Bath, where he continued his studies and achieved a first-class degree in Economics. Charlie re-joined Oxford Economics in July 2021 and is now responsible for forecasting the Food, beverages & other consumer goods sector, carrying out bespoke forecasting and data development.
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities
Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.Find Out More
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?
China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.Find Out More