Investor exuberance has driven commodity price volatility; will it continue?

Date: 21 June 2024

Commodity prices have been extremely volatile, with investors interpreting significant market exuberance in metal markets as a sign of a new commodity super cycle. However, we do not think fundamentals justify calls for a new bullish cycle across the commodities complex. Markets have mostly got ahead of themselves, and price corrections loom for some metals like copper.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ have extended production cuts into 2025, while Saudi Arabia and several key producers prolonged their voluntary cuts into Q3. But demand uncertainties and robust supply from Western producers are partly offsetting the OPEC+ cuts, keeping prices relatively bearish. That said, we still expect some commodities to offer significant returns over the rest of the year and see bullish structural fundamentals ahead for natural gas and gold prices.

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Kiran Ahmed Bio
Kiran Ahmed

Lead Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8034

Kiran Ahmed Bio

Private: Kiran Ahmed

Lead Economist

London, United Kingdom

Kiran joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She works on the Industry and Global Macroeconomic Services as well as on consultancy work. Her work for the Industry Service primarily involves the basic metals and engineering sectors, and for the Global Macroeconomic Service includes forecasts for commodity prices and the several East Asian economies.

Toby Wittington
Toby Whittington

Lead Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8046

Toby Wittington

Private: Toby Whittington

Lead Economist

London, United Kingdom

Toby joined Oxford Economics in July 2014 as an Economist with the Industry team. He is currently responsible for the intermediate goods sector forecasts as well as contributing to Industry consultancy projects. Toby was educated at Birkbeck College, University of London, where he gained a first-class degree in Financial Economics, followed by a MSc degree in Economics. His MSc dissertation investigated the transmission mechanism between the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme and UK interest rates.

Diego Cacciapuoti

Economist

Private: Diego Cacciapuoti

Economist

London, United Kingdom

Diego is part of the Industry team where he contributes to the forecasting and monitoring of commodities and he is responsible for the monthly precious metals and agricultural price forecasts. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Diego gained work experience at Record Currency Management and completed an MPhil in Economics at the University of Oxford. Diego is fluent in English, French, and Italian

Stephen Hare
Stephen Hare

Senior Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8142

Stephen Hare

Private: Stephen Hare

Senior Economist

London, United Kingdom

Stephen is part of the Industry team where he is responsible for the extraction sector forecasts and contributes to the monthly commodity price forecasts for iron and steel. Stephen joined Oxford Economics in January 2018 after completing his MSc in finance and econometrics at Queen Marys University of London.

Samuel Bakst

Graduate Economist

Samuel Bakst

Graduate Economist

London, United Kingdom

Samuel joined Oxford Economics in September 2023 as an economist and is based in the London office. Prior to this, he studied Economics (Bsc) at the University of Bristol and later completed Economics (Msc) at UCL. Intertwined with his studies, Samuel has worked in other fields within consulting.

Before university Samuel completed a Year In Industry placement year at Quod, a leading planning consultancy based in London. During this year Samuel worked in the socio-economic working on nationally significant infrastructure projects in the UK. After this Samuel worked at Wood Mackenzie, a major energy consultancy placed in the liquified natural gas (LNG) teams as a junior analyst. Within economics, Samuel is interested in macroeconomics and the ever-evolving intersection of economics with machine learning. His master’s thesis applied the latest algorithms in sentiment analysis to estimate how sentiment gets conveyed from central banks through the media, to the market.

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