From early to mid-cycle: Time to scale back our reflation trades

We discuss the implications of the end of early-cycle dynamics for key asset classes, with a focus on the outlook for global equities, developed market rates and FX. We continue to see higher core government bond yields across the board, but we reduce our equity overweight allocations in anticipation of higher macro volatility ahead.

We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas:

  • APAC – Tuesday 20th July | 10:00 HKT
  • EMEA – Tuesday 20th July | 10:00 BST
  • Americas – Tuesday 20th July | 16:00 EDT

Daniel Grosvenor

Director of Equity StrategyDaniel joined Oxford Economics in June 2019. He is an equity strategist, responsible for developing our equity views across countries, sectors and investment styles. Daniel joined Oxford Economics from HSBC, where he spent a decade working within their global equity strategy team, in both London and Hong Kong, and was most recently the lead of their European strategy product. Daniel has a Bsc in Economics from the University of Bath.

Daniel Grosvenor

Director of Equity StrategyDaniel joined Oxford Economics in June 2019. He is an equity strategist, responsible for developing our equity views across countries, sectors and investment styles. Daniel joined Oxford Economics from HSBC, where he spent a decade working within their global equity strategy team, in both London and Hong Kong, and was most recently the lead of their European strategy product. Daniel has a Bsc in Economics from the University of Bath.

Daniel Grosvenor | Director of Equity Strategy

Daniel joined Oxford Economics in June 2019. He is an equity strategist, responsible for developing our equity views across countries, sectors and investment styles. Daniel joined Oxford Economics from HSBC, where he spent a decade working within their global equity strategy team, in both London and Hong Kong, and was most recently the lead of their European strategy product. Daniel has a Bsc in Economics from the University of Bath.

Javier Corominas

Director of Global Macro Strategy

Javier Corominas

Director of Global Macro Strategy

Javier Corominas | Director of Global Macro Strategy

Javier Corominas is the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Oxford Economics. He is co-responsible for global strategic asset allocation as well tactical calls across all asset classes, as well as for developing and delivering our investment strategy product offering. Additionally, he has a significant focus on providing thematic macro strategy research to generate actionable investment advice for asset allocators, portfolio managers and corporate Treasurers.

Back to Events

Related Services

Event

Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

Find Out More

Event

A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

Find Out More