French elections: a leap into the unknown
The second round of the French parliamentary election resulted in a hung parliament as we expected, though the New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled alliance of the left-wing parties registered a surprisingly strong performance, securing first place.
The path ahead is now very blurry, with several possible outcomes, ranging from a minority left-wing government to a technocratic government, or even a grand coalition of moderate parties. Whatever the outcome, we expect to see policy paralysis and lasting political uncertainty. Meanwhile, the gradual fiscal consolidation planned by the previous government will be the first casualty of the political crisis, worsening France’s already fraught public finances.
This webinar is hosted in English.
Leo Barincou
Senior Economist based in Paris, France
Leo Barincou
Senior Economist based in Paris, France
Paris, France
Leo is a Senior Economist within the macroeconomics forecasting division of Oxford Economics. He is based in Paris and is responsible for producing macroeconomic forecasts for France.
Before joining Oxford Economics, Leo worked for seven years as an economist across various organizations, including the French Treasury, the asset management firm Covéa Finance and the economic consultancy Centolla. Léo holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics, as well as the Ecole normale supérieure and Sciences Po in Lyon.
Angel Talavera
Head of Europe, Macro
+44 (0) 203 910 8014
Angel Talavera
Head of Europe, Macro
London, United Kingdom
Ángel Talavera is Head of European Economics and is responsible for developing Oxford Economics’ macro view on the region, as well as producing macroeconomic forecasts for Spain. He manages a team of 12 economists producing regional and country-specific thematic research on over 30 countries, as well as contributing to the editorial line of Oxford Economics globally. Angel’s work also involves presenting the outlook to clients around the world and he is frequently quoted in international media.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ángel spent over five years in two different stints as an economist at FocusEconomics, a Barcelona-based macroeconomic consulting firm. In between, he worked at Beazley Group, an insurance firm based in London, where he focused on country risk.
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