Eight key long-term themes in the global economy and markets
We draw punchy lessons for the global economy and asset markets from a three-year research programme that tackles demographics and savings, secular stagnation, neutral rates, inflation trends, rotations to non-US assets, debt sustainability, and policy risks.
We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between EMEA, Americas and APAC:
- EMEA – Tuesday 13th April | 10:00 BST
- Americas – Tuesday 13th April | 16:00 EDT
- APAC – Wednesday 14th April | 10:00 HKT
Gabriel Sterne | Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research
Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for the financial markets, as Head of a team that integrates global strategy and EM macro views. Recently he has published most on populism, demographics and other drivers of low global yields, and the evolution of global fragilities as expansions mature. On the EM side he is a global expert on sovereign crisis and debt restructuring issues.
Daniel joined Oxford Economics in June 2019. He is an equity strategist, responsible for developing our equity views across countries, sectors and investment styles. Daniel joined Oxford Economics from HSBC, where he spent a decade working within their global equity strategy team, in both London and Hong Kong, and was most recently the lead of their European strategy product. Daniel has a Bsc in Economics from the University of Bath.
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?
Policy announcements are coming thick and fast in the UK at the moment and have been greeted with the most significant sell-off in UK assets in decades. Is this a case of markets overreacting or have the UK public finances been put on an unsustainable footing? Will the Bank of England react to the fall in sterling or are markets setting themselves up to be disappointed? We will set out our views on all these topics and set out the conditions under which we think this volatility will subside.Find Out More
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.Find Out More