Commodity key themes 2025: Another volatile year for commodity markets as Trump 2.0 looms
In this webinar, we explore the key themes driving commodity markets in 2025. We expect the US will impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports next year, and that China will retaliate, weakening economic growth and commodity demand. Trump will also likely make major energy policy announcements early next year, intending to expand US oil production and boost LNG exports. We anticipate the US dollar will strengthen next year, putting further downward pressure on commodity prices.
Furthermore, China, by far the largest consumer of commodities and with a structurally slowing economy, will drag on commodity demand next year without further stimulus, while OPEC+ faces another challenging year as the group sets to unwind production cuts.
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Stephen Hare
Lead Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8142
Stephen Hare
Lead Economist
London, United Kingdom
Stephen is part of the Industry team where he is responsible for the extraction sector forecasts and contributes to the monthly commodity price forecasts for iron and steel. Stephen joined Oxford Economics in January 2018 after completing his MSc in finance and econometrics at Queen Marys University of London.
Kiran Ahmed
Lead Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8034
Private: Kiran Ahmed
Lead Economist
London, United Kingdom
Kiran joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She works on the Industry and Global Macroeconomic Services as well as on consultancy work. Her work for the Industry Service primarily involves the basic metals and engineering sectors, and for the Global Macroeconomic Service includes forecasts for commodity prices and the several East Asian economies.
Diego Cacciapuoti
Economist
Diego Cacciapuoti
Economist
London, United Kingdom
Diego is part of the Industry team where he contributes to the forecasting and monitoring of commodities and he is responsible for the monthly precious metals and agricultural price forecasts. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Diego gained work experience at Record Currency Management and completed an MPhil in Economics at the University of Oxford. Diego is fluent in English, French, and Italian
Samuel Bakst
Graduate Economist
Samuel Bakst
Graduate Economist
London, United Kingdom
Samuel joined Oxford Economics in September 2023 as an economist and is based in the London office. Prior to this, he studied Economics (Bsc) at the University of Bristol and later completed Economics (Msc) at UCL. Intertwined with his studies, Samuel has worked in other fields within consulting.
Before university Samuel completed a Year In Industry placement year at Quod, a leading planning consultancy based in London. During this year Samuel worked in the socio-economic working on nationally significant infrastructure projects in the UK. After this Samuel worked at Wood Mackenzie, a major energy consultancy placed in the liquified natural gas (LNG) teams as a junior analyst. Within economics, Samuel is interested in macroeconomics and the ever-evolving intersection of economics with machine learning. His master’s thesis applied the latest algorithms in sentiment analysis to estimate how sentiment gets conveyed from central banks through the media, to the market.
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