Canada Outlook: Soft landing still most likely but recession risks are rising
Economic growth in Canada is forecast to slow sharply in the latter portion of 2022 and in 2023 – likely to stall speed – as momentum from the reopening of the economy after Omicron fades and compounding threats weigh on growth. We’re increasingly concerned that a conjunction of headwinds, led by an overly aggressive Bank of Canada tightening and a highly-indebted household sector, could push the economy into recession. While we still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for Canada, we reckon the odds of a recession over the next twelve months have risen to about 40%.
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Tony Stillo
Director of Canada Economics
+1 (437) 690 0267
Tony Stillo
Director of Canada Economics
Toronto, Canada
Tony Stillo is the Director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics. He leads the team responsible for preparing the macroeconomic forecast for Canada using Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model, reporting on key data releases, as well as producing and presenting research on key issues affecting the Canadian economy. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2018, Tony spent much of his career at the Ontario Ministry of Finance where he most recently led a team responsible for economic modelling, forecasting and impact analysis.
Michael Davenport
Economist, Canada
+1 (437) 690 0266
Michael Davenport
Economist, Canada
Toronto, Canada
Michael is an Economist with a particular focus on the Canadian economy. He primarily supports the Director of Canada Economics in producing macroeconomic research and forecasts, monitoring the Canadian economy, and liaising with clients and the media.
Michael first joined Oxford Economics Canada as an Economic Research Analyst Intern in the Toronto office in early 2019 and has since been promoted to an Economist. Michael holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Financial Management from Wilfrid Laurier University.
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