Air travel risks and recovery
As vaccines are being rolled out worldwide air travel will start to return in 2021. However, there remain significant risks in the outlook, including from the new variants of the virus, while vaccinations alone may not be sufficient to fully restore traveler confidence. In this webinar, David Goodger, Oxford Economics and Brian Pearce, IATA will explore the revised outlook and the near-term risks for air travel as the sector begins the journey back to more normal trends.
![]()
|
Dave Goodger | Director of Tourism Economics, EMEA David Goodger is Director of Tourism Economics, Europe. He has been instrumental in developing the global model of tourism flows and spending, which covers 185 origins and destinations, and he continues to manage the regular forecast updates. He also maintains an active role in new product development and consultancy work. |
|
Brian Pearce | Chief Economist at IATA Brian Pearce is IATA’s Chief Economist. The role of his team is to analyse the economic and policy landscape facing the airline industry, to provide credible economic analysis to guide and support IATA’s advocacy work. An economist with over 35 years of international experience in several industries, he is also a Visiting Professor at Cranfield University’s Department of Air Transport and a member of IATA’s senior leadership team. He has been on panels of expert advisers for the UK Airports Commission, the UK Department for Transport and ICAO. He was formerly director of the Centre for Sustainable Investment at the think-tank Forum for the Future, head of global economic research at the investment bank SBC Warburg in Tokyo and then London, and was Chief Economist at Ernst & Young’s economic forecasting consultancy. |
Related Services

Event
Asia reacts to US tariffs
We draw the implications of tariffs for Asian economies, in particular how the movement in financial markets may affect real economic outcomes.
Find Out More
Event
トランプ関税下の世界経済:経済モデルを用いたシナリオ分析
今次ウェビナーの前半では、トランプ関税下、最新の世界および日本経済見通しを説明します。当社では、一連の関税の発表を受け、米国の2025年の成長率見通しを従来の2.0%から1.2%へと大幅に下方修正、日本経済についても、今後、2026年前半までゼロ成長を強いられるという見通しに変更しました。内外経済・物価の先行き不透明感が増すなか、日銀は利上げサイクルを一時停止し、次回の利上げは2027年にずれ込むと予想します。 後半では、各国の関税政策をめぐる不確実性の高さを踏まえ、当社マクロ経済モデルを用いたシナリオ分析を紹介します。実際にモデル上の「関税レバー」を操作し、「相互関税」の復活や、グローバルな関税の応酬激化を想定した場合の世界経済・金融市場・コモディティ市場への影響を、波及経路を確認しながら検討します。
Find Out More