Air Passenger Forecasts: Coverage

Country and region coverage

• The service provides forecast data to 2036 for almost 4,000 country pairs on an origin-destination basis. The main focus is on the largest country-pair relationships, those where at least 1,000 passengers a month currently travel between them (on a bi-directional basis).
• Forecasts also include almost 800 country-pair relationships that, while below the threshold of 1,000 passengers a month, we assess are likely to exceed it over the coming 20 years - the "markets of tomorrow," which are mostly from the emerging world.
• Reports cover the following markets: Global, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.

Forecast series covered

• Summary passenger flows: total passengers, domestic passengers, international passengers.
• Economic drivers: GDP, real US$; GDP per capita, real USD; Population, total; % middle class households; Exchange rate, US$, Exchange rate, weighted average index.

Forecasting framework

Forecasts are based on Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model and maco forecasts. Our approach distills the many factors that will combine to shape air travel markets in the long run into three main drivers; doing so offers a simple but powerful framework to think about long-term trends in the industry. Almost every conceivable factor that will influence air travel markets in the long run, from shifting dynamics in energy markets to structural economic reforms, will affect air markets through one of the following channels:

• Living standards.
• Population and demographics.
• Price of air travel.
• In addition to the standard reports and databank, we are able to create forecasts and scenarios based on custom requirements.