Our team of 200 economists draw on the latest models and analytical tools to provide valuable support to the banking sector
Financial institutions need to balance investment, lending, and strategy decisions against a complicated and ever-changing and uncertain global economic environment. At the same time, banks need to incorporate consistent and rigorous alternative macroeconomic scenarios into their risk identification frameworks, and to comply with stress testing exercises such as CCAR, DFAST and PRA. In addition, with the IFRS9 accounting framework that will go live in 2018, the impairment forecasts of financial institutions will depend on multiple economic scenarios and their associated probabilities.
Oxford Economics, the world’s leading global economic consultancy, offers a range of off-the-shelf and tailored services, including regularly updated data, forecasts and analysis on 200 countries, 100 industries and over 4,000 cities and regions. Behind this analysis are the world’s leading globally integrated, open-architecture economic and industry models.
Our integrated Global Economic Model ensures that our forecasts are internally consistent across 80 countries and for the global economy. It provides a rigorous and consistent framework for analysing the world economy and building economic scenarios.
Regular analysis and commentary on economic events, market shifts, emerging trends, and policy changes.
Thematic research on key macroeconomic issues including monetary policy, fiscal policy, investment strategy, and trade.
Customised research programs providing strategic insights on business operations, including how banks connect with customers, maximize the value of emerging technologies, address virtual currencies, and remain competitive in an ever-shifting business landscape.
Forecasts of exchange rates for major currency crosses and for all currencies against the US dollar.
A deep portfolio of forecast databanks, with projections by quarter and by year out to 25 years and software that simplifies data selection, trend analysis, visualisation and export.
Wide coverage of emerging markets, with in-depth macroeconomic analysis and forecasts and deep expertise, often produced within the region covered.
A sovereign and currency risk framework that analyses the vulnerability of cross-border investments and trade, providing an impartial, informed view of a country’s fundamentals and its ability to repay debts.
How Banks use our analysis
Stress testing and scenarios. With over 30 years of experience producing independent forecasts and scenarios, our macro-modelling and scenario planning solutions are designed to meet the stress-testing requirements of domestic and international regulators.
Investment banking. Our macroeconomic and asset price forecasts together with thematic and securities focused research are used by advisory and trading teams to support specific transactions and trading strategies.
Crossborder lending and trade finance. Our sovereign and currency risk metrics, based on an impartial view of fundamentals, are used to structure and price commercial loans and trade finance transactions.
Commercial and corporate banking. Lending teams use our country, regional and industry level monitoring to inform lending decisions.
Retail banking. We provide retail banks with country, regional and city level forecasting and analysis on areas such as house prices, income and unemployment to support their underwriting and risk management decisions.
Corporate planning. Our baseline forecasts and scenarios for key macroeconomic variables including interest rates, inflation and unemployment are used by banks to inform the annual planning and strategy process.
Select Banking Clients
Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Prudential, Barclays, UBS, Daiwa, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, HSBC, Banca Intesa, Lloyds Bank, Santander, Standard Chartered Bank, Unicredit, Nordea, NM Rothschild, Deutsche Bank, MasterCard, American Express.
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