Growth is beginning to regain momentum

Apr/May 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• Recent news still supports our view that the worst has passed for the global economy.
• Even so, there remain solid reasons to believe that any pick-up in growth from here will be gradual.
• We’ve raised our global GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1ppt to 2.5%. The forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 2.8%.

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