United States: The impact of climate scenarios on states and metros

The economic impact of mitigation policies to address climate change will vary by state and metro. Understanding these differences, under different scenarios, is critical for businesses and local government when developing their strategic plans, risk assessments, and location decisions.

What you will learn:

• Our latest analysis adds a local dimension to our existing range of national-level climate scenarios which link the economy, the energy system, and the environment.
• The states and metros most negatively impacted in these transition scenarios will be those with greater dependency on mining and extraction (oil, gas, and coal), and sectors that are carbon-intensive in their production or operational processes, such as manufacturing and transport services.
• In our Net Zero scenario, oil-dependent states and metros, many of which are in the South, are among those facing the largest reductions in economic activity compared to the baseline. Meanwhile, Midwest states and metros are vulnerable due to their reliance on carbon-intensive manufacturing industries.
• To illustrate the costs of climate inaction, we have modelled an additional scenario (Climate Catastrophe) in which governments fail to meet their policy pledges to transition to net zero, and as a result, the US suffers more frequent and extreme climatic events.