Will the US travel industry prevail through a potential global recession?

Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation, core inflation remains stubbornly persistent and broad-based across goods & services. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is brought down. The Oxford Economics baseline 2023 GDP forecast now sits at 0.1% for the year, while our growth expectations for 2024 stand at a modest 0.8%.

What you will learn:

• Softening labor markets and a weaker economic environment will slow consumer spending. Some early signs of trouble are evident in recent weakening in retail sales, increases in consumer debt, and a housing market reeling from high borrowing costs.
• However, recessionary impacts on leisure travel will be modest compared to past economic downturns. Consumers are well-positioned to weather a downturn. Household finances and steady job creation will continue to support leisure travel.
• A mild recession in 2023 will slow but not reverse the trend of the business travel recovery cycle. Corporations are still in the process of rebuilding business travel activity to more normal levels. Additional pent-up demand remains for conventions and trade shows as well as other meeting types.