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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
August / September 2019

  • The US-China trade war flare-up and ongoing industrial weakness fuel concern over the outlook. We forecast world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019, the weakest since the financial crisis, and 2.7% in 2020 – versus the 3% average of 2014-18.
  • July PMIs showed manufacturing activity down for a third month. Services have also weakened, but consumer spending looks more resilient and we expect this to bolster growth.
  • A clear risk is the US imposing new tariffs on China. We estimate this would cut global growth by just 0.1ppt in 2020, but a hit to confidence or tighter financial conditions would increase the toll.
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  • Travel to the US from #China is under pressure from the #tradewar. If the trade conflict continues we estimate there could be a loss of 1.9 inbound Chinese visitors and $11bn in visitor spending from China over 2018-2020: bit.ly/30l69Ld

  • Today’s 2/10yr #UST #yieldcurve inversion heightens focus on recession risks and timing. The 2/10yr spread remains a good #recession indicator but we note lead times hv historically been long, ~2yrs on average since the '80s, and variable from 10m to 3yrs: bit.ly/2KO15sg

  • More #Brexit turmoil suggests two directions for #sterling. A #nodeal Brexit may see the #pound drop to just above and just below 1-1 with the dollar and euro, respectively. A deal shd see a bounce. But #GDP may be stuck below “fair” value for some time: bit.ly/2H9oiE4

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: bit.ly/2H7Y2Kt. The US-China trade war flare-up and industry weakness fuel concern over the outlook. We f/cast world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020.

  • In #Germany, the economy shrank 0.1% q/q in Q2 on external weakness and the #autos sector’s malaise, but domestic demand remained resilient overall. H2's outlook is subdued but we still believe a technical recession will be avoided: bit.ly/2Twu2wy

  • July core #inflation in the #USeconomy rose at a faster than expected 0.3% pace in back-to-back with a 0.3% June rise. This is unusual – the last time was Jan/Feb 2001. But with US growth slowing, we doubt it's the start of a firmer trend in inflation: bit.ly/2H6ZEEi

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: bit.ly/2Z3kbQa. The US-China trade war flare-up and industry weakness fuel concern over the outlook. We f/cast world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020.