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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
December / January 2019

  • With few clear signs of recovery emerging, and a renewed escalation of trade tensions, we expect global growth to reach a low in early 2020 and then pick-up only gradually from there.
  • While there have been tentative signs that world industrial output and trade reached a trough in late 2019, activity in services has softened, so global growth may weaken further around the turn of the year.
  • We still see world growth bottoming-out in Q1 2020, with a pick-up following as widespread policy loosening starts to take effect. But any revival will be weak and we still expect global growth of only 2.5% this year and next.
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Latest Analysis

  • Nov 29 2019

    Germany: Labour constraints a barrier for infrastructure spending

    Raising public investment – particularly into the country’s aging infrastructure – is at the core of most recommendations to Germany’s fiscal policy setters. But in our view supply shortages in the co...

  • Nov 28 2019

    World trade stabilising but fragile and limited

    World trade continued to contract in Q3 2019, falling at the fastest pace in a decade. Our in-house indicators suggest it may be starting to stabilise, in line with our baseline forecasts, but risks r...

  • Nov 28 2019

    China’s labour market holding up well

    Recent indicators suggest that China’s labour market is holding up well so far on the back of continued urban job creation in the service sector. Policymakers are therefore likely to continue to hold...

  • Nov 28 2019

    MENA Weekly: GDP growth in Dubai at 2.1% in H1 2019

    Growth in Dubai remained solid at 2.1% y/y in H1, supported by transportation and tourism. The economy may feel a slight squeeze in H2 given the ongoing global economic weakness, but growth is expecte...

  • Nov 27 2019

    Canada: Top calls for 2020: Testing the economy’s stall speed

    The economy has ratcheted down from a 3.7% annualized surge in Q2 to a below-potential pace that we believe will continue through 2020. Growth next year will be supported by expected extra federal fis...

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  • In #Asia, we expect growth to stabilise in 2020 though #China will slow further. 2019's synchronized downturn is likely to to give way to more diverse outcomes with economies that push harder on policy levers outperforming others. Our 2020 Asia outlook: bit.ly/38sAls4

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE SUMMARY: bit.ly/2E7hQvm. We see a further slowdown into 2020 and world growth of 2.5% this yr and next, the weakest since 2009. But despite heightened recession risks, we think this shd be avoided.

  • As highlighted by AFP, our new 'Global Cities' study shows the #globaleconomy slowdown biting on growth in #cities worldwide. Of the top 900 cities we find just under two-thirds will see slower growth in 2020-21 than in the past 5 years: yhoo.it/2LE4f2L @heatherscottafp

  • Customer trust is getting harder to earn (and keep). Find out how leading organizations are leveraging #data, #AI, #blockchain and other technologies to win the battle for trust. Our latest #CsuiteStudy with @IBMIBV: ibm.co/2P6o4lE

  • Latest developments confirm the #USeconomy isn’t about to fall off a cliff. Looking ahead to 2020, we see a good chance of a soft landing ahead. Our top calls for next year: bit.ly/2PwvbCL

  • More than a year after agreement on the #USMCA trade accord, the deal looks likely to pass the US Congress and be signed by the President. The importance is not modernising #NAFTA but in preventing breakdown of #trade between the US and key trade partners: bit.ly/349QCiv

  • Saturday’s prelim #IMF move to grant a $5.5bn loan to #Ukraine was likely political, on the eve of Paris peace talks. Banning return of nationalised bank assets to previous owners will likely mean full approval and a further rally in Ukraine’s USD bonds: bit.ly/2RKCKIG