The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

October / November 2019

  • Weak survey data make an imminent global rebound unlikely and worries over slowing growth and trade war may be taking a toll on services. We see a further slowdown into 2020, and world growth of 2.5% this year and next, the weakest since 2009.
  • Some activity gauges are downbeat but global PMI data is little changed since June so global growth is unlikely to plunge. Global recession risk is now 30% but we believe that will be avoided.
  • Central bank moves and the lack of an escalation in trade tensions should be enough to ensure the present downturn turns out to be a ‘mini-slowdown’ within the economic cycle.
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Latest Analysis

  • Oct 11 2019

    United States: Itsy-bitsy-teeny-weeny handshake deal with China

    Following two days of high-level trade talks in Washington DC, Trump announced a “very substantial phase 1 deal” that would lay the foundation for a broader agreement later this year. But, behind the...

  • Oct 11 2019

    Canada: Larger workforce will give long-run potential output a boost

    While our short-term GDP outlook remains subdued around 1% for the rest of this year and next, we have revised up our projection for Canada’s long-term economic growth. Potential output growth is now...

  • Oct 11 2019

    United States: Fed to expand the balance sheet via bill purchases

    As signaled by Fed Chair Powell’s “pre-announcement” earlier this week, the Fed has formally announced that it will start to expand the size of its balance sheet in order to restore the level of bank...

  • Oct 11 2019

    Ukraine: Ze euphoria is over

    The euphoria over the seemingly libertarian young President Volodymyr Zelensky (who marketed himself as Ze in his election campaign) appears to be coming to an end. Markets are waking up to the realit...

  • Oct 11 2019

    Trade war winners and losers – an update

    Our updated simulations of the China-US tariff dispute suggest the worst is still to come for bilateral trade, which could ultimately shrink by 50%. Should the dispute broaden into a global trade war,...

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  • Thursday's #ECB Council meeting will be the last chaired by Mario #Draghi as he hands over to Christine #Lagarde at the end of the month. We don't expect much else of note after last month’s monetary fireworks that will see the restart of #eurozone QE:

  • Establishing the world’s largest free trade area is an investment game changer. So, what are the top #African economies for investment? Get the the 2019 #AfricaRiskRewardIndex from OE and @NKCAfrica with @Control_Risks to find out more: #ARRI2019

  • The Hays Global #Skills Index 2019/20, produced with OE, analyses the challenges facing organisations in their labour market as they search for the most sought-after talent. Read the full report at:

  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI

  • Amid #tradewar, with businesses more reluctant to invest, construction activity in #Asia is at risk of becoming collateral damage. In our latest Asia Construction Service report we map key trends, winners and losers for Asia #construction and #realestate:

  • In #France 2020 budget plans confirm fiscal policy supports demand following the #giletsjaunes crisis. Tax cuts for households will be 3x larger than planned 1yr ago, before the protests. In contrast, tax cuts for companies are more than halved:

  • Global growth is ~1ppt down from its Q1 2018 peak. Since the 70s there hv been 7 slowdowns on this scale; 4 morphed into #recession. We find a 30% risk of global recession in the next 12m, but this could change rapidly if there were several more shocks: